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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, November 28, 2024
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing W-N-SE. In these areas, a dense slab of recent storm snow is sitting on top of a pre-existing, faceted weak layer, and human triggered avalanches are likely.
A MODERATE danger exists on S-SW facing slopes, especially where you can detect stiff slabs of wind drifted snow. The danger decreases as you lose elevation.
Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We have several events coming up to kick off the winter season:
Thursday, December 5 - FREE Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk 6 PM at the Grand County Public Library
Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.
Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick in some areas. All wheel drive and good tires recommended. Thank you Grand County!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 18" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 26"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 10-15 Temp: 7° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 178%
Weather
Skies are clear and 10,000' temperatures are in the single digits. It's going to be a sunny, cold, crisp, and beautiful Thanksgiving Day in the mountains. Winds will be light from the NW, and high temps will be in the low 20's. Enjoy it and get used to it because it's going to stay like this for awhile.
General Conditions
And just like that, we have a snowpack! A powerful atmospheric river on Tuesday delivered 18" of snow at a whopping 3.7" of Snow Water Equivalent. This is extremely wet, dense, heavy snow like you see in the Pacific Northwest. At normal density for our region, this much water would equate to 3' of powder snow. And it was all capped off with 6" of medium density fluff. And although conditions still remain thin, this was exactly the kind of base building material we needed. That's the good news. The bad news is, it fell on pre-existing, weak, faceted snow setting us up for a long term, persistent weak layer problem. In our travels yesterday, pro observer Chris Benson and I observed frequent collapsing, saw a handful of natural avalanches, and got a good look at our developing snowpack, see video below.
Chris also shot some great drone footage to give you a birds eye view of how things are looking up there.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
We didn't observe as many avalanches as I thought we would which is somewhat disconcerting, but we did observe this significant slide in Talking Mountain Cirque in upper Gold Basin. We also saw evidence of several others that had blown back in including these that Chris spotted with the drone.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A dense cohesive slab now exists over top of a pre-existing layer of weak, faceted snow that has been sitting around since October. This layer is widely distributed near treeline and below on all northerly aspects as well as on some west and southeast facing slopes. Above treeline, distribution is more spotty due to variable snow cover caused by windy periods during the long dry spell. Regardless, all steep slopes on the north side of the compass should be considered very dangerous, and this persistent weak layer problem will be with us for some time.
The snowpit diagram below illustrates the current structure of strong snow over weak snow. On top you can see the dense slab created by the recent heavy snow. Underneath is the weak, faceted snow, with the red line indicating where we got failure in an extended column test (ECTP 16). A layer of deteriorating basal ice makes up the bottom 5 cms.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong and erratic winds during the storm deposited slabs of wind drifted snow in a variety of locations. Primarily blowing from the southwest, most of the wind loading occurred on north and easterly aspects. Those slopes are to be avoided anyway due to the persistent weak layer problem, but we also observed drifted slabs on southerly aspects in exposed terrain. Look for cracking in the snow surface, and avoid steep slopes with a smooth rounded appearance, or that feel hollow underneath.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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