Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 2, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today and human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes. Triggering an old wind slab is becoming increasingly less likely, but a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on steep, shady, northerly facing slopes. Most low elevation and south-facing terrain have LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County widened the road and plowed the parking lot Monday. Expect a snow-packed surface with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.
Grooming update: All trails were groomed on Tuesday. 2" of new snow has fallen since then.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 2" Weekly Snow 14" Base Depth in Gold Basin 42" Wind N 5-10 mph Temp 16F
The mountains picked up 2"-4" of new snow yesterday providing a nice refresh for the already stellar conditions. Westerly winds yesterday remained relatively calm blowing in the 15-20 mph range along ridge tops. Today looks to be mostly sunny and beautiful with light northerly winds and high temps near 20 degrees. Conditions will remain dry for the next several days.
Dave Garcia and company were out yesterday and sent in this observation.
We're off to a great winter so far with a snowpack of near 200% of normal for this time of year!
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Recent Avalanches
I had a good look around on Sunday and observed that most of the avalanche activity from last week's storm cycle was confined to loose snow sluffs and point releases. One exception was a slide I observed in Tele Gold that appeared to have fractured beneath the cliffs and ran most of the length of the path. Nate Ament was up Tuesday and detailed this avalanche further.
Nate Ament photo.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today you may find a few fresh, shallow wind slabs along NE-E facing upper elevation ridge crests. These shouldn't pose too much of a threat. Triggering an old wind slab is becoming increasingly less likely, but a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep slopes that look to be heavily wind-loaded, or that have a smooth, rounded appearance.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas with poor snowpack structure continue to be observed but weak layers are displaying varying degrees of reactivity. Dave Garcia's party discovered a reactive weak layer yesterday on a NW aspect at 10,150'. Some shallow snowpack areas are also developing a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground. Prudent backcountry travelers will perform their own stability analyses before jumping into the steep and deep. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on north-facing slopes that are heavily wind-loaded, or in areas with rocky, radical terrain that have a shallow snowpack.
Note the persistent weak layer in the snowpit wall. Travis Nauman photo.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.