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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 18, 2024
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on all steep slopes facing W-N-E, near and above treeline, and on slopes facing NW-N-E below. Deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches involving a buried persistent weak layer are likely in these areas.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing SW-S-SE at all elevations, and on W and E aspects below treeline. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible.
A very weak, and unstable snowpack has developed and this situation is likely to be with us for awhile. Cultivate the mindset that avalanche terrain is off limits and keep your slope angles less than 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road was last plowed on Tuesday and we've received a few inches of snow since then. 4x4 and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Expect fresh snow on trails today. The next grooming is scheduled for tomorrow.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 4" 72 Hour Snow 5" Season Total Snow 81" Base Depth at Gold Basin 37"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WNW 10-15 Temp 25˚ F
Weather
A fast moving storm yesterday left another 4" of snow in the mountains. Strong winds from the SW blew for a few hours yesterday morning at the start of the storm but they were quite behaved after that, even dropping into single digit speeds as they shifted around to the NW. Residual moisture from a weak, shortwave trough nudging though northern Colorado should keep some cloud cover over our mountains for at least part of today. Look for gradual clearing as the day goes on. Winds will be light to moderate from the WNW averaging 15 mph along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the upper 20's. Look for partly sunny skies on Friday. Our next chance for a few inches of snow looks to be on Sunday.
General Conditions
4" of new snow and minimal wind below treeline should provide a nice refresh for turning and riding conditions. January has been an active month in the La Sals, doubling snow totals of the previous two months, and we're now up to about 40" since Jan 5. That's the good news. The bad news is that all of this new snow has settled into a cohesive slab on top of a very weak foundation, and we are developing one of the more treacherous snowpacks that I have seen in years. Widespread collapsing has been observed over the past several days. This red flag sign of instability is the result of a person's weight collapsing the slab over a weak layer. In addition, Dave Garcia remotely triggered a very large, un-survivable avalanche on Monday (see details below) from several hundred feet away. The danger is greatest on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing slopes, but a persistent weak layer exists on all aspects. Avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees is the strategy right now.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
On Monday, while stomping around the low angle slopes adjacent to Coyote Chute, Dave Garcia remotely triggered this large avalanche in the Horse Creek Chutes. This avalanche is about 1,500' wide with an average depth of 4' and a maximum depth of 6.5'. Get the full details here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A slab of cohesive snow now exists above a persistent weak layer of faceted snow on all aspects and elevations. We anticipate this weak layer to be active for a long time. Signs of instability like cracking and collapsing may be less obvious today, but make no mistake, conditions remain dangerous.
The remotely triggered avalanche in Horse Creek on Monday tells us that human-triggered sensitivity remains elevated. This avalanche is a great example of the poor snowpack structure in alpine terrain. Large, hard slabs of wind-drifted snow rest on top weak, faceted snow, and they are hanging in the balance just waiting for a trigger. Once triggered, these avalanches will break deep and wide, and be un-survivable.
The danger is not limited to northerly aspects, as we have started to see collapsing and poor pit results on southerly facing slopes as well. Avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all aspects is the strategy right now.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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