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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 12, 2023
Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on steep, northerly facing slopes above treeline where human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow remain likely. A MODERATE danger exists on all other slopes near and above treeline that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
While becoming less likely, it is still possible to trigger a deep, dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow. The danger for this type of avalanche is MODERATE on all slopes near treeline and above, and below treeline on slopes that face NW-N-NE-E
Low
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Special Announcements
Improve your avalanche awareness and rescue skills and sign up for our Backcountry 101 Class on January 20, 21.
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but areas of soft snow exist near the top. AWD and good tires recommended.
Grooming: All trails were groomed yesterday and conditions are excellent.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 8" Season Total Snow 138" Base Depth at Gold Basin 60"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak NW 10-15 Temp 10F
Weather
Enjoy the next two sunny days as a brief ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will climb into the high 20's today, and low 30's tomorrow. NW winds will be light. SW flow increases Friday night ahead of the next Pacific storm system to impact the region. Saturday will see gusty SW winds and cloudy conditions with snowfall beginning Saturday night and lasting through Sunday. Yet another system moves on shore Monday keeping us under a stormy pattern through mid next week.
General Conditions
8" of snow has fallen in the mountains since Monday. Strong southerly winds drifted new and older snow creating stiff slabs on leeward slopes. Primary deposition has been on northerly facing terrain, but swirling and eddying currents have built slabs on all aspects. We don't have any observations from yesterday. Wind slabs generally stabilize within a day or two, but until I get up today and have a good luck around I'm going to assume that human triggered wind slabs remain likely on steep, wind drifted slopes. It is also still possible to trigger an avalanche on our deeply buried persistent weak layer. This is turning into a low probability, high consequence scenario. You are most likely to find trouble in steep, northerly facing terrain above treeline.
Dave shot this video on Tuesday of blowing and drifting snow into the NE facing slopes of Upper Horse Creek. This is the kind of terrain you still want to avoid.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. Here is the La Sal Avalanche Database.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of recently deposited wind drifted snow remain the biggest concern today. Recently formed wind slabs will primarily be found on leeward slopes that face Northwest to North to East above treeline, but dfon't neglect mid elevation terrain down off the ridge lines, where you will find cross-loaded gullies and sub-ridges. Shooting cracks under your feet are a sure sign you have found a fresh wind drift. Fresh drifts will look smooth, round, and fat.
Strong south winds have been sustained for several days and old, hard wind drifts exist above treeline. These older drifts are stubborn and harder to trigger, creating a dangerous situation by allowing you to get further out on the slab before it fails. Hard drifts often produce hollow, drum like sounds when you walk on them.
Backcountry travelers need to avoid any slope with recently wind drifted snow. Any avalanche triggered in wind drifted snow has the potential to step down to the buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The widespread persistent weak layer (PWL) that formed in November is showing signs of strengthening and stability tests continue to be less reactive. This means avalanches are becoming harder to trigger but the consequences remain the same. Any avalanche triggered on this deeply buried PWL would be large and unsurvivable. The greatest risk exists on steep, wind drifted, northerly aspects above treeline. As we start to think about easing into larger terrain, areas to avoid include slopes with steep convexities or blind break-overs; thin snowpack areas along slope margins or near shallowly buried rock outcrops; and areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain.
For more information on this check out Dave's fieldwork from Tuesday.
Additional Information
The Avalanche Beacon Training Park is up and running just above the Geyser Pass Traihead. It's right there and easy to use, so get some practice as you head up for your next tour.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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