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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, March 8, 2021
Areas with heightened avalanche conditions exist and there is MODERATE danger on steep upper and mid elevation slopes in the backcountry. Although becoming more unlikely, people could trigger large avalanches failing 2 to 3 feet deep on a deeply buried persistent weak layer in some areas. Very steep rocky slopes, and previously drifted slopes with stiffer slabs overlaying shallow, weak snow are the most suspect. Warm temperatures, solar heating, and possible green-housing, will soften and saturate the surface snow and cause areas of elevated wet avalanche conditions during the heat of the day.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Allen Foss of Preston, ID was killed in an avalanche Saturday, February 20, near Sherman Peak. Please consider supporting the Foss family during this difficult time.
Weather and Snow
We're expecting another warm day, and moderately strong southerly winds will continue to devour the snow in exposed, windward terrain. It's already 37°F this morning at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is 68 inches of total snow and 85% of normal SWE. South winds increased overnight and are currently blowing 35 mph with 50 mph gusts from the south at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station and it's 33°F. We're expecting increasing clouds, fairly strong south winds veering from the southwest in the afternoon, and continuing unseasonably warm temperatures in the mountains today. Temperatures at 8500' will top out at around 45°F and the air-dryer wind will ventilate many areas, but solar warming and green-housing could cause some sheltered slopes to heat up dramatically again. Expect an inch or two of snow tonight, snow showers, and much cooler temperatures tomorrow.
Recent Avalanches
A very extensive natural avalanche cycle occurred in mid February and evidence is still apparent across the zone including deep crown lines, large chunks and very long piles of avalanche debris.
A rider remotely triggered an avalanche on a drifted slope somewhere in the Elk Valley Area last Sunday (2-28-2021). A video of the avalanche was posted on Twitter HERE.
We've observed several recent natural long running wet loose avalanches on south, southeast, and southwest facing slopes in the zone in the past few warm days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although it is gradually becoming more unlikely for people to trigger avalanches, any potential avalanches could still be large and very dangerous. Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the threat of large avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground remains. Although suspect weak layers appear to be dormant in many areas, the sugary faceted snow near the ground is still dry, and it is likely to continue to be devious. People might trigger a large deep slab avalanche from a thinner part of the slab. As avalanches become less likely, they will remain possible for people to trigger on very steep slopes, in rocky terrain, and on slopes with generally thin snow cover.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
Faceted snow and even depth hoar like this is widespread across the Logan Zone, and it exists on slopes facing every direction and at all elevations... Maybe it's dormant, but I'm not planning to test my luck in steep terrain anytime soon..
The snow is still very weak, sugary or faceted, and dry. Even so, our tests show pretty good stability in most areas.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With very warm midday temperatures and potential green-housing, loose wet avalanches entraining saturated snow are possible, especially on steep sheltered slopes. Temperatures will likely rise to around 55°F in Logan Canyon and in other low elevation terrain again today. The surface snow on shady mid and upper elevation slopes could become saturated and avalanche prone in the midday warmth. Even a small avalanche could be enough to cause problems, especially on steep slopes with trees or other terrain traps below. In some areas, smaller wet avalanches overrunning slopes with buried persistent weak layers could step down into older snow near the ground and cause much larger and more destructive avalanches.
  • Avoid travel on and under slopes with saturated snow in the heat of the day
  • Stay well back from cornices as they can break much further back than you expect, and avalanches are possible on slopes below.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram, or @UAClogan on Twitter.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 Wednesday morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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