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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, March 6, 2023
Heightened conditions exist at all elevations today, and people could trigger avalanches on backcountry slopes steeper than 30°. The danger is CONSIDERABLE on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes, where avalanches will be larger and more easily triggered. Small natural avalanches are possible even at lower elevations and could impact trails and travel routes where they are unexpected, affecting folks who don't normally need to worry about avalanches.
  • Make conservative decisions, and evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
Last week people remotely triggered a few large avalanches on drifted slopes. Huge cornices formed with the recent storms, and they continue to build today with drifting by moderate winds from the west. Heavy snow and drifting increased the load and thickened wind slabs overloading backcountry slopes, some with poor snow structure and buried persistent weak layers. People could trigger soft slab or loose avalanches of storm snow, large cornice falls, or 1 to 4' thick slab avalanches of wind drifted snow, perhaps failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Long running natural avalanches are possible, so people should continue to stay clear of avalanche paths and runout zones. Excellent snow cover at low elevations means that slopes are smooth and primed, and even small avalanches could surprise unsuspecting people at lower elevations who do not normally face avalanche risk.
All of these avalanche issues only affect terrain steeper than 30° and we've been finding fantastic powder riding in the meadows off and out from under the steep hills.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 23 inches of new snow from the weekend storm, with 2.0" SWE . It's 15° F this morning, and there is 135 inches of total snow. The wind is currently blowing from the west-southwest 15 to 20 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of snow showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as 2. West southwest wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -9. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -6. West southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Unsettled and cold weather will continue through the week, and it looks like probably another storm for the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, there were many small natural avalanches of storm snow at all elevations. Last week was pretty active in the Logan Zone, with a few close calls and new avalanches reported almost every day.
  • Thursday, riders remotely triggered a large avalanche in the southernmost bowl off Red Pine Ridge, in Richard's Hollow or the backside of Providence Canyon. (9000', east facing), video HERE
  • Wednesday, a rider lost his sled to a large cornice fall off the ridge west of Logan Peak, which triggered a large avalanche in the Cirque in Logan Dry Canyon below. The rider jumped off the sled as it went over the edge and the fully buried and broken sled was recovered on Thursday. report HERE
  • Skiers remotely triggered a large avalanche in the Beaver Mountain Backcountry Tuesday. The 2' deep and 600' wide avalanche off the south ridge of Beaver Mountain is on an east facing slope at 8000', and it was triggered by a skier hundreds of feet away. report is HERE
  • For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
    Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This morning winds are blowing moderately from the west, but they are plenty strong enough to drift the fresh powder. Avalanches of wind drifted storm snow, 1 to 4 feet thick, are possible on drifted slopes at all elevations, but will be larger and even more likely for people to trigger on upper and mid elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • Wind slabs consist of stiffer drifted snow.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge and unstable with recent storms, so stay well away and out from under them.
  • Some wind slab avalanches could fail on a sugary persistent weak layer, and some might be triggered remotely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer problem is widely scattered across terrain, where thin layers of sugary snow or other weak snow grains exist only in isolated pockets, but on most aspects. At lower elevations in the Logan Zone layers of sugary faceted snow are more widespread in areas with shallower snow cover (<4') and more prevalent on northerly facing slopes.
  • Avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible at all elevations but are notably also still possible down lower, below about 7000' elevation.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Natural soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow are less likely but remain possible at all elevations. Avalanche paths are filled in and "greased" so some natural avalanches could run far out onto the flats.
  • People are likely to trigger shallow soft slabs and loose avalanches of storm snow on slopes steeper than 30°
Additional Information
Stay well clear of the freshly swollen cornices, which are likely to break further back than you might expect and could trigger avalanches on slopes below.
A cornice broke further back than expected , and it took a sled for a nasty ride. Luckily the rider was able to jump off the sled before it went over the edge and was swept into a large avalanche and buried.
The cornice fall triggered a large avalanche below in the Cirque in Logan Dry Canyon, which damaged and completely buried the sled.
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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