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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, March 4, 2023
Periods of heavy snow and drifting by increasing winds from the southwest will elevate backcountry avalanche conditions. Heightened conditions already exist on drifted slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations, and CONSIDERABLE danger will develop once again up high in windy terrain and on slopes facing northwest through southeast. People could trigger large cornice falls or 1 to 3' thick slab avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a buried persistent weak layer.
  • As the avalanche danger rises people should make conservative decisions and evaluate the snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
You can find nice deep powder conditions in northerly facing terrain at all elevations, and you can find great, faster conditions now without venturing onto steep slopes. This week people remotely triggered a few large avalanches on drifted slopes. Huge conices formed with the recent storm, and they continue to build today with drifting by winds from the south and southwest. Today's storm will add to the load and thicken wind slabs overloading backcountry slopes, some with poor snow structure and buried persistent weak layers.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 5 inches of new snow from yesterday. It's 15° F this morning, and there is 129 inches of total snow. The wind is blowing from the southwest around 25 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Snow, mainly after 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Wind chill values as low as -1. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -6. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
Sunday: Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -8. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Unsettled and cold weather will continue, and although we're not seeing big storms, a bit more snow is likely to fall next week.
Recent Avalanches
  • Thursday, riders remotely triggered a large avalanche in the southernmost bowl off Red Pine Ridge, in Richard's Hollow or the backside of Providence Canyon. (9000', east facing), video HERE
  • Wednesday, a rider lost his sled to a large cornice fall off Horse Ridge (S.Ridge of Providence Peak), which triggered a large avalanche in Three Terraces Bowl below. The rider jumped off the sled as it went over the edge and the fully buried and broken sled was recovered on Thursday. report HERE
  • Skiers remotely triggered a large avalanche in the Beaver Mountain Backcountry Tuesday. The 2' deep and 600' wide avalanche off the south ridge of Beaver Mountain is on an east facing slope at 8000', and it was triggered by a skier hundreds of feet away. report is HERE
  • Tuesday, I could see evidence of widespread long running natural avalanches in the Wellsvilles, with most paths having slid. Bench crashers! Some ran full length of their paths, way overrunning debris from previous events.. On Thursday, I visited Maple Bench to look at extensive naturals from earlier in the week, and to the runout from Bird Canyon, which ran full length of path (~3000vrt') and well into maples below.
  • A natural avalanche Monday morning ran ~1250 vrt' to Green Canyon bottom less than 100' from access road to popular trailhead at about 5000' in elevation.
  • For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
    Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This morning winds are blowing from the southwest, and they are strong enough to drift the settled powder. Avalanches of wind drifted storm snow, 1 to 4 feet thick, are possible on drifted slopes at all elevations, but will be larger and even more likely for people to trigger on upper and mid elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • Wind slabs consist of stiffer drifted snow.
  • Some wind slab avalanches could fail on a sugary persistent weak layer, and some might be triggered remotely.
  • Stay well clear of the freshly swollen cornices, which are likely to break further back than you might expect and could trigger avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer problem is widely scattered across terrain, especially at mid and upper elevations, where thin layers of sugary snow or other weak snow grains exist only in isolated pockets, but on most aspects. At lower elevations in the Logan Zone layers of sugary faceted snow are more widespread and more prevalent on northerly facing slopes.
  • Avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible at all elevations but are notably also still possible down lower, below about 7000' elevation.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Additional Information
A cornice broke further back than expected on Horse Ridge (S. Ridge of Providence Peak), and it took a sled for a nasty ride. Luckily the rider was able to jump off the sled before it went over the edge and was swept into a large avalanche and buried.
The cornice fall triggered a large avalanche below in Three Terraces Bowl, which damaged and completely buried the sled.
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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