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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, March 27, 2023
Heightened avalanche conditions can be found in backcountry terrain at all elevations, the danger is MODERATE, and avalanches are possible on slopes steeper than 30°. People could trigger loose and soft slab avalanches of drifted storm snow, and strong sun could cause a danger of wet avalanches. Conditions are more dangerous and there is CONSIDERABLE danger in windy upper elevation terrain, where people are likely to trigger large cornice falls, and 2' to 3' thick slab avalanches of wind drifted snow.
Make conservative decisions, evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and continue to stay well away from and out from under those big cornices.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Thank you to everyone who donated to our Spring Campaign. We appreciate your support and look forward to creating new tools to help you stay safe in the backcountry.
We are in the process of finalizing a report about the March 9th avalanche fatality in the Uintas. Thank you for your patience, and we will publish the final report in coming days.
Weather and Snow
Although not quite like the cold smoke conditions like we had in January, we found very nice deep powder conditions in safe lower angled terrain (by staying off and out from under slopes steeper than 30°). The snow settles quickly this time of year once it stops falling, and we've found that the snow that fell recently, (mostly Friday), in the Central Bear River Range is already generally stable in most places. Exceptions exist in some drifted upper elevation terrain and in places where more snow accumulated, like in the Wellsville Range and the southern reaches of the Bear River Range.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 9° F and there is 144" (12 feet) of total snow. The wind is blowing from the northwest around 16 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast (36 hrs) for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Monday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly between 9am and noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -2. West northwest wind 7 to 11 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -10. South southwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Wind chill values as low as -3. South wind 11 to 15 mph.
More unsettled, cold, and snowy weather is likely to last through the upcoming week. It will be mostly cloudy tomorrow, and snow showers are on tap every day, Wednesday and through the remainder of the work week.
Recent Avalanches
  • On Saturday, I went up to Maple Bench and checked out several very large and long running natural avalanches that occurred in the Wellsville Range overnight, (3-24/3-25). The very broad ~3' deep soft slab avalanches ran the full width and length of several the classic large avalanche paths and crashed down onto Maple Bench, southwest of Mendon. (see photos in "additional info" below)
  • A skier reports intentionally triggering a two-and-a-half foot deep soft slab avalanche on a northeast facing slope at around 8000' in elevation in the Emigrant Summit Area. report HERE
  • An observer noticed a fresh skier or rider triggered avalanche at low elevations near the Backside parking spot. report is HERE
  • For a list of recent avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range in the last few days due to wind drifted snow. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This morning's west-northwest winds aren't very strong, but they were plenty strong enough over the weekend in the Bear River Range to drift the fresh snow into avalanche starting zones. Expect to find sensitive huge cornices and 2' to 3' thick freshly formed wind slabs in drifted upper elevation terrain. Avalanches of wind drifted snow are possible on drifted slopes at all elevations, but conditions are less dangerous in sheltered terrain and where the powder is not affected by the wind.
  • Large cornice falls and/or 2' to 3' thick wind slabs are likely for people to trigger in windy terrain at upper elevations.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high ridges are huge this year, and recent storms have built them further out and made them unstable, so people should continue to stay well away and out from under them.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Loose and soft slab avalanches of storm snow are possible on slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations. Slab avalanches are possible in sheltered terrain but much less likely where the snow is unaffected by the wind.
  • Natural avalanches of storm snow are most likely during periods of heavy snowfall and drifting, but could also be triggered by tree bombs or loose snow sluffing off rocks.
    Avalanches of new snow are possible on low elevation slopes.
  • The snow on lower elevation slopes is quite a bit deeper than it normally is this time of year, especially on shady forested slopes.
  • Colder temps are helping to solidify the saturated older snow, but many lower elevation slopes picked up significant accumulations of new snow in the past few days, and some recent avalanches have been reported from lower elevation terrain.
  • The intense high angle sun could come out this afternoon and cause a rapid rise in danger of wet loose avalanches entraining large piles of moist new snow.
Additional Information
Here's a view from Friday, looking up the North Fork of Hell Canyon from Maple Bench.
A broad crown from a natural avalanche off Pleasant View Point that ran into Hell Canyon.
Most of the sub-drainages in Gibson Canyon showed activity, and some pretty big crowns are apparent.
The natural avalanches ran full width of their paths, and ~90% of the historic length.. size rating estimate of D3, R4
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snow-bike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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