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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, March 20, 2023
Periods of heavy snow and drifting from southwest winds will elevate backcountry avalanche conditions today. The danger is MODERATE at all elevations, people could trigger soft slab or loose avalanches of storm snow on upper and mid elevation slopes, and wet avalanches are possible lower down where rain is falling on the snow.
Expect rising danger today in upper elevation terrain, and CONSIDERABLE danger is likely develop this evening and tonight as accumulations of storm snow become significant, and long running natural avalanches become possible.
Plan for rising avalanche danger, make conservative decisions, and evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Weather and Snow
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports an inch of new snow and 25° F this morning, and there is 127 inches of total snow. The wind is blowing from the southwest 20 to 25 mph this morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast (36 hrs) for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Southwest wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as 1. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 16 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as zero. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph.
The National Weather Service has continued a Winter Storm Warning for the Logan Zone through tonight. The storm will elevate backcountry avalanche danger, and dangerous conditions are likely to develop in drifted terrain. The NWS has also issued a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Recent Avalanches
  • Skiers Saturday encountered the extensive debris from a recent large natural cornice fall avalanche in Rattlesnake Canyon in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. report HERE
  • Large natural wet avalanches were widespread at lower elevations in the Logan Zone Wednesday, spawned by warmth and a significant amount of rain-on-snow.
  • For a list of recent avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range in the last few days due to wind drifted snow. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People could trigger soft slab or loose avalanches of storm snow today on slopes steeper than 30° at mid and upper elevations, and heavy snowfall and moderate winds will elevate the danger. As significant new snow accumulates later today avalanches will become more likely and dangerous conditions are likely to develop this evening or overnight.
  • Avalanches of storm snow will become more likely during periods of very heavy snowfall, and natural avalanches are possible.
  • Rain at lower elevations will increase potential for wet avalanches. More than normal snow cover exists even at very low elevations, and snow becomes unstable on steep slopes as it is saturated and loosened up by rain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's moderate winds are blowing from the southwest, and they are not as strong as they've been in the past few storms. They are plenty strong enough to drift fresh snow as it is falling though, and expect cornices to continue to build and fresh wind slabs to form in avalanche starting zones.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow, large cornice falls, or 1 to 2' thick wind slabs, are possible for people to trigger in windy terrain at upper elevations.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge with recent storms, so its a good idea to continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a persistent weak layer buried 1 to 3 feet deep are unlikely yet possible, and some still might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Additional Information
A recent large natural cornice fall avalanche in Rattlesnake Canyon in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness ran quite a distance and put a large pile of debris in the main gully.
There are very large cornices in the Logan Zone this spring, and this is a good reason to stay well away from and out from under them for a while. Cornices can fail way back from the edge, on seemingly flat ridgelines, and they can trick and roll even the most experienced people. Natural cornice falls like this one are most likely during storms with significant ongoing drifting or when warm temps and spring sun cause rapid warming, but they can occur at anytime.....
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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