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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, March 20, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE in the backcountry. People could trigger avalanches on some very steep upper elevation slopes where southeast winds created shallow drifts of new snow, and wet avalanches will become possible if the sun comes out from behind clouds for a little while. The snow on northerly facing lower elevation and some mid elevation slopes is saturated and unconsolidated, and wet avalanches, gouging loose wet snow to the ground are possible on very steep slopes.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
  • We know there is a lot of uncertainty regarding coronavirus, but the Utah Avalanche Center is planning to continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into April.
  • Uphill Travel at Ski Areas - Some resorts will be offering limited uphill access but not all do. Up to date info about uphill access from Ski Utah is posted HERE.
  • Beaver Mountain is allowing people to earn their turns and practice good social distancing on the hill, and conditions are excellent. Non motorized use only.
Weather and Snow
It's 24°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel. About 4 inches of new snow fell in the last 24 hours at the site, containing 0.3" of Snow Water Equivalent. There is 87 inches of total snow, containing 112% of normal SWE. It's 19°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and south south-east winds are currently blowing about 12 mph.
The snow is stable and avalanches are generally unlikely. My only concerns involve the few inches of new snow on upper elevation slopes, where people might trigger shallow soft slabs, small loose moist avalanches, or cornice falls.
Low pressure currently centered over Nevada will keep cool and unsettled conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming through the forecast area into the first half of the weekend. Drier and warmer conditions are anticipated for Sunday before the weather becomes more unsettled to start the work week. Snow showers are likely today, mainly in the afternoon, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation possible on upper elevation slopes. It will be mostly cloudy with 8500' high temperatures around 35°F and 6 to 8 mph southeast winds, switching from the southwest in the afternoon. It will be partly cloudy tonight with low temperatures around 20°F and 7 mph west-southwest wind. There is a chance snow showers in the mountains again tomorrow, with partly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to be around 38°F, and 6 to 8 mph wind will blow from the west-southwest.
Recent Avalanches
On Monday, we visited the site of a fatal avalanche that occurred Sunday in the backcountry near Pebble Creek Ski Area, south of Pocatello Idaho. Preliminary accident information is HERE .
Here is a short video from the accident site.
  • Observers reported a couple natural storm slabs and small triggered avalanches of new snow at upper elevations in the Central Bear River Range last Saturday.
  • Sunday, riders likely remote triggered cornice fall which triggered a 1' deep and 60' wide avalanche of wind drifted snow at about 9400' on a northeast facing slope near Cornice Ridge.
  • No other avalanches were reported this week in the Logan Zone.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A few inches of new snow fell overnight at upper elevations, and moderate southeast winds created shallow drifts, some of which might be sensitive to human triggering today. Drifts formed on the lee sides of ridges and in and around terrain features where decelerating winds deposited the snow.
  • Watch for and avoid fresh drifts on the lee side of major ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
  • Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and could start avalanches on slopes below.
Sun may pop out from behind the clouds today, and the new snow will quickly become moist with warm temperatures. People could trigger small loose wet avalanches consisting of moist surface snow on steep upper elevation slopes, where a few inches of fresh snow accumulated.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Surviving snow at lower elevations and on some mid elevation slopes is saturated, unsupportable, and just too soft. People could trigger wet avalanches on very steep slopes and these could gouge to the ground and entrain significant piles of heavy snow. We need some nice cold nighttime temperatures and clear nights to refreeze the snow.
General Announcements
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
We will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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