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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, March 18, 2023
The snow is generally stable in the backcountry, avalanches are unlikely, and the danger is mostly LOW. Even so, areas with elevated conditions exist, and people might trigger large cornice falls or 1 to 2' deep slab avalanches of wind drifted snow on isolated upper elevation slopes, and wet avalanches may become possible on sunny slopes in the warmth of the day.
Use normal caution.
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Weather and Snow
The natural wet avalanche cycle on Wednesday spawned many destructive avalanches on forested low elevation slopes where I haven't seen avalanches in my short 20 years in the hood..
Overnight temperatures again dropped well below freezing and the surface of the rain saturated snow at lower elevations is now pretty solid. It could soften up again pretty quickly in the sun though. Around a foot of heavy new snow accumulated on upper elevation slopes with this week's storm, drifted by strong southwest and westerly winds. Expect to find areas with elevated conditions in drifted terrain still, with avalanches of wind drifted snow possible. Winds blowing from the southeast last night may have drifted snow onto slopes where you don't normally see wind slabs. People should continue to stay well away from and out from under huge overhung cornices on the major ridge-lines.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 14° F this morning, and there is 129 inches of total snow. The wind is blowing from the southeast 15 to 20 mph this morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast (36 hrs) for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Sunny, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as -4. Southeast wind around 10 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -1. South wind 9 to 11 mph.
Sunday:Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Wind chill values as low as 4. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph.
We'll see fair weather and sun through the weekend, with a return of the atmospheric river next week. Snow showers are likely in the Logan Zone beginning Sunday night, and continuing through at least Wednesday.
Recent Avalanches
  • Large natural wet avalanches were widespread at lower elevations in the Logan Zone Wednesday, spawned by warmth and a significant amount of rain-on-snow.
  • For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range in the last few days due to wind drifted snow. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind drifted snow, large cornice falls, or 1 to 2' thick wind slabs, are possible for people to trigger in isolated windy terrain at upper elevations.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge with recent storms, so its a good idea to continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a persistent weak layer buried 1 to 3 feet deep are unlikely yet possible, and some still might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
  • Wet avalanches are possible when the saturated snow softens up during the heat of midday, especially in sunny terrain.
  • More than normal snow cover exists even at very low elevations, and snow becomes unstable on steep slopes as it is saturated and loosened up by the high-angled sun.
Additional Information
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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