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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, March 12, 2024
This morning, the overall avalanche danger is LOW, but it will be rising to MODERATE as the storm develops. While the new snow should not pose much of a threat this morning, if the storm comes in earlier or with higher snow totals than expected, we will begin to see long-running sluffs within the new snow. Additionally, the elevated winds may begin to create unstable shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow at upper elevations. Steer clear of being on or under large overhanging cornices.
Pay attention to changing weather patterns; if the storm arrives sooner than anticipated, the danger will rise sooner than anticipated.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
This morning, the skies are overcast, and it is lightly snowing in the mountains with no measurable accumulation yet. Temperatures have dropped since yesterday. As of 6 AM, it was 28°F, with a total snow depth of 108 inches at the Tony Grove Snotel (8438'). At our new Card Canyon weather station (8750'), the temperature was already 24°F, with a total snow depth of 83.6 inches, about 0.1" of new snow this morning. Meanwhile, at the CSI Logan Peak weather station (9700'), it's 22°F, with winds blowing from the southwest at 22 mph and gusts up to 43 mph. Similarly, on Paris Peak (9500'), it's 20°F, with winds blowing from the southwest at 11 mph and gusts up to 20 mph.

Today, the storm will arrive, bringing moderate snowfall and elevated winds. Temperatures will warm into the upper 20s °F and low 30s °F. Winds will remain more southwesterly throughout the day before transitioning more easterly tonight and remaining elevated throughout the day, averaging 15-20 mph and gusting up to 30 at mid-elevations, with gusts near 45 at upper-elevation ridgelines. We could see 4-8" of new snow before 5 PM and 10-12" of new snow by tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Precipitation will become widespread across northern and central Utah today, extending to the southern half overnight. More instability on Wednesday will lower snow levels, mainly affecting mountain areas with limited valley accumulations expected. By Thursday, the precipitation threat will diminish in the northwest but persist in the southeast, with the potential for significant downslope winds in prone areas.
As of yesterday, there was still a bit of lingering well-settled powder that can still be found in the protected shady upper and mid-elevation terrain, although the cold areas were rapidly diminishing. Most slopes had a firm crust that became damp as the day progressed. Snow depth from the past week's storms is notably deeper at higher elevations but has settled well."
Recent Avalanches
There were no new reports of avalanches in the Logan area backcountry yesterday.
The only report of a slab avalanche throughout this last cycle came in Saturday; a rider was caught, carried, and their sled was fully buried on the NE side of Midnight Mountain. This avalanche failed as a hard slab of wind-drifted snow. The avalanche failed at 3 feet and 175 feet, and ran close to 300 feet. Chad and Michael Davis were able to make their way up there Saturday. (See Video Below). Find the full observation HERE.
Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The high winds, in combination with new snow, will begin to form fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow along all aspects at upper elevations. These wind drifts will be generally shallow but could be sensitive to the weight of a rider today, given they are forming on top of a wide variety of supportable crusts and snow surfaces. Look for obvious signs of wind-drifted snow, such as pillow-shaped slopes, cracking, and whumpfing, and avoid those slopes.
Cornices present a real danger today as well. Give them a wider berth than expected. Cornice falls could trigger avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The issue is simple today: as the snowfall intensity increases, the avalanche danger is going to increase as well. Once the snowfall begins, I expect to start seeing shallow new snow avalanches in the backcountry today, primarily small loose dry avalanches, but we could begin to see some shallow soft slab avalanches as the storm continues.
The type of avalanche, whether loose dry or soft slab, will depend on how quickly the new snow bonds compared to how quickly the snow is falling from the sky. Watch for signs of instability such as cracking and sluffing. Even a small slide can have serious consequences in big, steep terrain or if you’re above cliffs.
Pay attention to changing weather.
Additional Information
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read my recent blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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