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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, March 10, 2023
People should stay off and out from under backcountry slopes steeper than 30°. Dangerous avalanche conditions will continue to develop and become more widespread today on drifted backcountry slopes at all elevations with heavy snowfall and rain, warming temperatures, and strong winds from the southwest. The danger will likely rise to HIGH on drifted slopes at upper elevations, with human triggered and long running natural avalanches likely. Rain saturating the cold snow could cause very dangerous wet avalanche conditions, with wet avalanches entraining significant piles of saturated snow likely on lower elevation slopes.
Avoid travel in avalanche terrain and stay clear of avalanche runouts.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The UAC is sad to report that two skiers were caught and buried in a large avalanche in Upper Weber Canyon in the Uintas yesterday. One skier was successfully rescued and survived. Sadly, the other skier was buried deeper and did not survive. A preliminary report is available HERE.
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday's fine powder conditions are now just a memory, and conditions are now completely different. Dangerous conditions will continue to develop and become more widespread today as heavy warm snow and drifting overloads yesterday's nice cold powder. Today, as dangerous conditions become more dangerous you should plan to avoid travel in backcountry avalanche terrain.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 2" of heavy snow from overnight on top of the 15" of light powder from midweek. It's warming and 28° F this morning, and there is 138 inches of total snow. Gale force winds are currently blowing from the southwest at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. The station recorded sustained hourly average wind speeds in excess of 45 mph for several hours and gusts in the upper 70s, with 82 mph late last night.
Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow. High near 34. Wind chill values as low as 10. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow, mainly before 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west northwest wind 35 to 45 mph decreasing to 17 to 27 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Saturday:A slight chance of snow before 8am, then a slight chance of snow after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -4. West northwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
We could see a bit of a break and a bit of sun over the weekend, and it looks like another Pacific storm early next week around Tuesday.
Recent Avalanches
  • Yesterday, we observed evidence of widespread small natural loose and soft slab avalanches of storm snow on steep slopes at all elevations.
  • For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range yesterday. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind drifted snow, 1 to 3 feet thick, are likely in windy terrain at all elevations, but will be larger and more likely for people to trigger on upper elevation slopes. Drifting of today's heavy snow will continue to build already huge cornices and create new wind slabs...
  • People are likely to trigger shallow soft slab or loose avalanches of heavier storm snow on slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations, even in sheltered terrain.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high peaks and ridges have become huge with recent storms, so its a good idea to continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Some old wind slabs formed on a sugary persistent weak layer, and some might still be triggered remotely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Natural and human triggered wet avalanches entraining significant piles of saturated snow are likely at lower elevations today.
  • These could occur on unexpected slopes and slide down onto trails or access roads, or into the river. People who don't normally have to deal with avalanche risk may be affected, so be careful where you walk the dog, run, bike, or go fishing today....
  • avoid being under all steep slopes with rain saturated snow
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer problem is widely scattered across terrain, where thin layers of sugary faceted snow exist only in some areas, but on most aspects. Thin layers of weak snow also often form above or between sun crusts, and some recent avalanches have failed on sunny east and southeast facing slopes.
  • Avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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