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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, February 3, 2019
HIGH: Expect rising avalanche danger with heavy snow and continued strong and sustained southwest wind today. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry already this morning as a warm, wet, and windy Pacific storm impacts the Logan Zone. Very strong south winds overnight drifted heavy snow into lee slopes and avalanche starting zones. Rain and warmth at lower and mid elevations saturated the snow and softened crusts. Slopes with buried sugary persistent weak layers are being overloaded by heavy drifted snow, increasing the chances for dangerous deep hard slab avalanches.
  • Avoid travel in avalanche terrain today. Stay clear of obvious or historic avalanche paths and run out zones.
  • Stay off and out from under steep slopes with rain-saturated or wind drifted snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Weak surface snow, consisting of sugary near surface facets and surface hoar feathers, is widespread in the Logan Zone, and this weekend's wet, warm, and windy storm is causing the avalanche danger to rise significantly in the backcountry.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 5 inches of heavy snow overnight, with .8" SWE. It's 27º F this morning and there's 59" of total snow containing 87% of average SWE for the date. It's 22º F, at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Southwest winds diminished somewhat since frontal passage early this morning, and are currently averaging around 30 mph, with an earlier gust of 76 mph from the south.
A series of storm systems will impact the area through the middle of the week. Today it'll snow in the mountains, with 9 to 13 inches of accumulation possible. Temperatures at 8500' expected to drop to around 27º F, and sustained southwest winds will blow 30 to 35 mph with 50 mph gusts. Tonight, we'll see more heavy snow and continuing southwest wind. Temperatures will rise to around 34º F, and 30 to 35 mph southwest winds are expected to continue. 10 to 16 inches of accumulation is forecast. Snow and winds will continue tomorrow, with 8 to 12 inches possible, temperatures around 33º F, and 32 to 36 mph south-southwest wind, gusting to around 55 mph.
Recent Avalanches
Other than minor loose wet avalanches at lower elevations yesterday, no significant avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Zone.
There were a few close calls in the Provo and Salt Lake Area Mountains yesterday, involving loose wet avalanches. reports are on our avalanche page... HERE
There were numerous close calls and lucky outcomes across Utah in January, including several in the Logan Zone. Sadly, we have two recent fatalities to report, both from the Manti La Sal National Forest.
-A snowmobile rider was killed in the La Sal Mountains near Moab on 1/25/18. report is HERE
-A backcountry skier was killed near Fairview on 1/18/19. report is HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The danger of avalanches caused by wind drifted snow is increasing significantly today. Dangerous conditions already exist on drifted upper elevation slopes this morning, and drifting with heavy snowfall and continued strong and sustained southwest winds will cause the danger to rise and become more widespread. Natural and human triggered avalanches will be likely this afternoon on drifted upper elevation slopes.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Rain below about 7500' saturated the snow and created dangerous wet snow avalanche conditions on steep slopes. Natural and triggered loose wet avalanches are likely, and possible on low elevation slopes where they could endanger unsuspecting people. Avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The storm is adding weight to slopes with poor snow structure and increasing the danger of avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer. In some areas, buried layers of sugary faceted snow may be reactivated. Dangerous hard slab avalanches are becoming more possible for people to trigger on very steep drifted rocky slopes with shallow cover and poor snow structure.
Frost or feathery surface hoar and thick and thinner layers of small-grained near surface facets plagued the snow surface on many slopes before the storm. On some slopes these will likely become problematic persistent weak layers.
Weak surface snow plagues the Logan Zone currently, and we are set up for an active period as a warm, wet, and windy storm bares down on us this weekend.
Chains of well developed, loose faceted snow. Weak sugary snow like this is widespread in the Logan Zone in places where the snow is less than about a meter deep.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast tomorrow morning.
The new weather station at the WSU Bloomington Canyon Yurt is up and running. Data available HERE
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
Hope to see you at the CROWBAR backcountry ski race, planned for Saturday, 2/9. The fun ski mountaineering race will be held in the Swan Flats/Garden City Canyon Area. For more information go...HERE
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. Same goes for the steep rocky terrain adjacent to Cherry Peak Resort. If you leave a ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment and follow safe backcountry travel protocols.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations. HERE You can call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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