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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, February 23, 2024
You'll find excellent, deep powder riding, but elevated avalanche conditions exist, and avalanches are possible in the backcountry. The danger is MODERATE on slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations.
  • Avalanches of wind-drifted snow and cornice falls are possible in high mountain terrain.
  • On upper and mid-elevation southerly-facing slopes, people could trigger large avalanches failing 2 or 3 feet deep on a thin, persistent weak layer that sits atop a melt-freeze crust.
  • Wet avalanches, entraining heavy piles of moist new snow, will become possible on sunny slopes at all elevations by midday.
  • Safer conditions, stable snow, and generally LOW danger can be found on lower angled slopes and in most northerly facing sheltered terrain.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, especially on drifted slopes with a solid melt-freeze crust buried 2 to 3 feet deep. Avoid being on or under steep, sunny slopes with saturated new snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
You can expect to find excellent deep powder riding conditions today, with the new snow a bit heavier on sunny slopes and at lower elevations. When the sun comes out from behind the clouds today, it will affect the snow, making it sticky or slushy and prone to producing loose wet avalanches. Soft slab avalanches and cornice falls are possible in high wind-affected terrain, and small loose avalanches are possible on very steep slopes. In some southerly upper and mid-elevation terrain, avalanches could fail on a sugary, persistent weak layer on top of a melt-freeze crust buried 2 to 3 feet deep.
Although we found close to 2 feet of new snow at upper elevations in the Central Bear River Range yesterday, the Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reported 13 inches of new snow with 1.1" SWE (snow water equivalent) from Wednesday's surprise storm. It's currently 24° F, and there is 108" of total snow (with 125% of normal SWE). The wind is blowing from the northwest this morning around 15 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. At 9500' on Paris Peak, winds are blowing from the west around 12 mph, and it's 17° F.
Today will be sunny in the mountains. The winds will blow from the west at around 8 mph. High temperatures at 8500' are expected to be around 28° F, but will rise to around 38° F down lower in Logan Canyon. Tonight will be mostly clear, with mountain temperatures falling into the teens.
Tomorrow will be sunny with high temperatures up high around 35° F and 10 to 15 mph winds from the west. It looks like fair weather will last through the weekend, with the next storm impacting the zone on Monday and Tuesday.
Recent Avalanches
Wednesday afternoon, a rider remotely triggered a 2-foot-deep slab avalanche in upper Providence Canyon (see photo below). The avalanche on a south or southeast-facing slope at around 8300' in elevation probably failed on a thin persistent weak layer. see report
Extensive roller-ball swams, small loose wet avalanches, and a few larger natural soft or perhaps wet slab avalanches in the Mt Naomi Wilderness were spotted from the valley Tuesday evening. see the report
Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human-triggered avalanches of wind-drifted snow are possible in drifted upper-elevation terrain today.
  • Watch for and avoid soft wind drifts on the lee side of major ridges, corniced slopes, and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, gully walls, and mid-slope rollovers.
  • Stay well away from and out from under overhanging cornices, which may break further back than expected.
  • Loose avalanches of fresh snow are possible on very steep slopes, even in more sheltered terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches on some mid or upper-elevation slopes may fail 2-3 feet deep on a thin layer of small-grained, sugary, or faceted snow. This thin, persistent weak layer was buried and overloaded by the productive storms over the past week. The problem appears to be more pronounced in sunny terrain where the thin layer of faceted snow sits atop a supportable melt-freeze crust.
  • Avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
  • Audible collapses or whumpfs and shooting cracks are obvious signs of instability, but these red flags may not be present when avalanches occur.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With sunny skies and above-freezing temperatures forecasted for lower and mid-elevations today, wet avalanches entraining big piles of saturated heavy new snow will become possible in the heat of the day.
  • Roller balls, pinwheels and natural sluffs or loose avalanches are signs of instability.
  • Avoid being on or under steep sunny slopes with saturated new snow.
*If you plan on fishing the Logan River today, be mindful of what's above you. Avoid standing under steep slopes where warmth-saturated snow may slide down on top of you.
Additional Information
A remotely triggered slab avalanche occurred Wednesday afternoon in upper Providence Canyon. This likely failed on a thin, sugary, persistent weak layer.
General Announcements
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read my recent blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-I will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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