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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, February 23, 2021
Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger are widespread in mid and upper elevation backcountry terrain. People are likely to trigger large avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer. The danger is higher on drifted upper elevation slopes facing the eastern half of the compass. Natural avalanches are possible as cornices build and lee slopes are overloaded by drifting from intensifying west-northwest wind. Avalanches could be triggered remotely, or from a distance, and could be very large and dangerous.
Avalanches are possible at all elevations, but you can find safer conditions in sheltered terrain, at lower elevations, and on gentle lower angled slopes.
  • Use extreme caution in the backcountry. Expect unstable snow conditions.
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Special Announcements
We are very sad to report that on 2-20-2021, a 48-year-old Preston man was killed in an avalanche on the east side of Mount Sherman near Georgetown Idaho. Preliminary accident information is available from Local News 8 and Idaho State Journal. We visited the accident site yesterday and are working on the report. We will publish more details soon.
Weather and Snow
Light snowfall is visible on the Beaver Mountain Webcams this morning. There is a couple inches of new snow with 0.1" SWE in the last 24 hours. It's 27°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel. There is 74 inches of total snow and 82% of normal SWE. Westerly winds are intensifying and drifting snow this morning at upper elevations. Winds from the west are blowing 25 to 30 mph and gusting to 51 mph at the UDOT Hwy 89 Logan Summit weather station. Very large natural avalanches were widespread across the Logan Zone early last week. In several areas, natural avalanches were incredibly extensive, with nearly all avalanche paths producing big slides.
We're expecting a windy day in the mountains. Snow showers are likely this morning, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation possible. Temperatures at 8500' will drop to around 14°F this afternoon, and strong westerly winds will continue to increase this morning. Wind chill values will be as low as -4°F. Expect cold and unsettled weather to continue through the week, with only light accumulations...
Recent Avalanches
On Saturday 2-20-2021 a party of riders remotely triggered a very large avalanche near Gibson Lakes in Franklin Basin, a few miles north of the Idaho state line. The large group of riders were down in the flats, and well out from under any steep terrain when they heard a very loud "sonic boom" audible collapse, and the whole hill came down... clouds obscured the crown, but the debris field was quite broad.
A couple fresh natural avalanches in the Wellsville Range were observed Saturday from a distance. These were most likely caused by cornice falls, and blowing snow continues to build large sensitive cornices and deep drifts or wind slabs on lee slopes in exposed terrain.
A fresh natural avalanche in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness, 2-20-2021.
A significant natural cycle occurred across the Logan Zone early last week, with many huge avalanches observed. Very large natural avalanches failing on a buried sugary persistent weak layer and running well out into lower elevation runout zones were widespread and occurred on slopes facing every direction. Reports of extensive natural avalanches include most avalanche paths in the Wellsville Mountain and Mount Naomi Wildernesses, in Upper Spring Hollow, and Wood Camp Hollow. Big avalanches were also reported near Tony Grove Lake, Providence Canyon, Logan Dry Canyon, Cub River, Hillyard Canyon, and in the mountains west of Bear Lake.
Large natural avalanches were widespread across the Logan Zone early last week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heavy snowfall and westerly winds last week added significant weight to slopes that were already near the tipping point. Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the threat of large and deadly avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground is quite real. Avalanches are likely on steep slopes that did not naturally avalanche recently, where a slab of more cohesive wind drifted snow is building on top of the weak snow.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind drifted snow are likely where drifts formed recently and are continuing to build today, especially on slopes with buried persistent weak layers.
  • Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they can sound and feel hollow and drum-like when you walk on them.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
  • Stay well back from cornice edges as they can break much further back than you expect and avalanches are likely on slopes below.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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