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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, December 31, 2019
Snow is stable, and the danger LOW this morning on most slopes in the Logan Area Backcountry. Although unlikely to be much of a problem, people might trigger small avalanches of new or wind drifted snow. Strengthening westerly winds today will cause continued drifting and rising danger on upper elevation slopes. Expect the danger to rise rapidly with tomorrow's potent winter storm, and dangerous avalanche conditions are likely to develop in many areas.
  • Use normal caution.
  • Evaluate upper elevation snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's 10°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there's another couple inches of light new snow from yesterday. There is 46 inches of total snow, with 100% of average SWE for the date. It's 15°F on Logan Peak, and west-southwest wind increased a bit early this morning and is blowing around 18 mph.
The avalanche danger is Low and very nice shallow powder snow is stable on most slopes in the Logan Zone. Avalanches are generally unlikely, but possibility still exists for people to trigger avalanches, mainly on drifted upper elevation slopes. People should also continue to avoid very steep rocky slopes with thin snow cover. Looks like 2020 is likely to come in with rapidly rising avalanche danger. The National Weather Service in SLC has issued a Winter Storm Warning for tomorrow. A potent Pacific winter storm will impact the area on New Years Day, with significant accumulations and strong winds possible in the mountains.
Sunday's powder was so light it was hard to measure. Some report about 6 inches of super light fluff fell on upper elevation slopes.
It will be partly sunny in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures around 21°F, increasing west-northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, and wind chill values as low as -16°F. Snow will begin to fall late tonight, with 1 to 3 inches possible by morning. Expect low temperatures around 11°F, rising to around 22°F during the night, and 16 to 21 mph west-northwest winds causing wind chill values around -7°F. A fairly potent winter storm will impact the zone tomorrow, with 5 to 9 inches of snow possible, high temperatures around 26°F and 20 to 23 mph west-northwest winds. Snow should continue into the night and tapper off by Thursday morning.
Recent Avalanches
A skier triggered a small soft slab of wind drifted snow yesterday in the Mount Naomi Wilderness (5th Sister, Cottonwood) on a NE facing slope at about 9000'. The avalanche was reported to be about 10" deep x 25' wide.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although it is unlikely for a person to trigger an avalanche, it is still possible, especially on very steep upper elevation slopes. Use normal caution means being situationally aware and prepared for possible avalanches.
  • Everyone in your party needs to have and know how to efficiently use a beacon, probe, and shovel.
  • Cross steep slopes or possible avalanche paths one-at-a-time while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible on some upper elevation slopes. West winds increased a bit overnight, drifting fresh and very light snow into upper elevation deposition zones. Expect drifting to continue and westerly winds to increase further today ahead of tomorrow's storm.
  • Even small avalanches can be quite dangerous in shallow snow conditions.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges
The sugary October persistent weak layer near the ground on northerly facing upper elevation slopes appears to be dormant for now, but it's still a good plan to avoid steep, thin, rocky terrain.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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