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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Wednesday morning, December 27, 2023
The avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations and aspects where human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Low danger does not mean no danger. Always be aware of changing snow and weather conditions especially above treeline where sustained winds may have drifted the snow into stiffer wind drifts that might be sensitive to the additional weight of a rider.
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Weather and Snow
For today, winds will blow from a westerly direction15-20MPH gusting to 25MPH at the highest ridgelines. Skies will be partly sunny with temperatures 25-30 °F. Clouds are forecast to increase throughout the day.
For tomorrow, Thursday December 28th look for partly cloudy skies, winds blowing from a westerly direction 15-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH and temperatures 28-32 °F
As of Wednesday Morning, the Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' has 42" of total snow. The CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700' had overnight temperatures in the teens ° F and winds blowing from the northwest 25 MPH with gusts up to 37 MPH. The Card Canyon weather station at 8700' has 33.6" of total snow on the ground. The Paris Peak weather station in Southern Idaho is reporting overnight temperatures in the 20's °F with winds blowing from the north 15 gusting to 21 MPH.
Looking ahead we should build an inversion in the valleys with the next chance of snow around the New Year. Read the most updated forecast discussion from our partners at the National Weather Service for Southern Idaho HERE and for Northern Utah HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday there was a report of a wind-drifted snow avalanche in the Millville Peak area. In the mountains south of Logan, backcountry travelers reported natural shallow wind-drifted snow and dry loose avalanches running in steep terrain above treeline and I would expect the same could be found in the Logan area mountains. Check out this observation from High Creek where Nick B reported overall stable snow with areas of sensitive wind-drifted snow.
Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You may find small avalanches in isolated areas where it might be possible to trigger wind-drifted snow close to ridgelines; or dry loose avalanches on steep shady aspects as the snow surface weakens.
Even though the avalanche danger is LOW you still want to use good travel techniques, check out general announcements below for some tips.
Additional Information
We have an older December Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) that is buried 4-8" off the ground and while it has been a while since we have seen natural avalanche activity on this layer the very nature of this PWL is that any additional weight could be enough to tip the scales. While I don't think that the most recent 2-3" of new snow and wind is enough to trigger this now dormant weak layer, I don't trust it and the best advice I can give is to follow good backcountry protocols (see additional information below) when traveling on terrain where this PWL is buried. Greg and Nikki had a forecaster discussion about this buried PWL layer the other day that applies to the Logan Zone. Check it out HERE.
This fall, we installed two new weather stations in the Logan Zone. The Paris Peak Weather Station (available HERE) and the Card Canyon Weather Station (available HERE)
General Announcements
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols when traveling on or under slopes steeper than about 30°
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter apparent signs of instability
  • Up high on slopes facing west, north, and east, triggering a dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer is unlikely but remains possible in isolated outlying terrain where a thick hard slab of heavy snow from early December overlies weak, sugary snow from November
  • IMPORTANT: Read Mark's blog about electromagnetic interference of avalanche transceivers HERE.
  • We will update this forecast Friday December 29, 2023 before 7:30 AM.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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