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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, December 23, 2024
Heightened avalanche conditions remain on upper and mid-elevation slopes facing northwest through east. The danger is MODERATE, and people could trigger dangerous slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer buried one to two feet deep. Avalanches could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below the slope. A few inches of fresh snow and drifting today may elevate the danger in upper-elevation terrain where people could trigger small wind slabs.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and continue to avoid drifted upper-elevation slopes steeper than 30°
Low
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Find participating shops and more info HERE.
Weather and Snow
A few inches of new snow won't change avalanche conditions much, but I expect a fresh coat of white will enhance the scenery...Riding conditions are pretty good in sheltered, north-facing terrain where the snow remains soft and somewhat supportable. The snow is still generally quite shallow, and it's easy to sink through the sugary snow to the shallowly buried, A-arm-bending rocks underneath. In most other areas, yesterday's snow surface was wind-buffed, crusty, or damp. Many south-facing slopes are still bare or too thin for on-snow travel.
The slab layer created by two storms last week is one to two feet thick (possibly thicker in exposed, wind-loaded terrain), and it caps weak, sugary, faceted snow from November. Last week, we observed numerous signs of instability, including natural and remotely triggered avalanches, long-running shooting cracks, and widespread audible collapses or whumpfs (***see video below.) As the snowpack gradually adjusts to the recent loading, these "Red Flags" will become less frequent or nonexistent. Even so, people could still trigger dangerous avalanches. This setup is tricky because remotely triggered avalanches remain possible and avalanches might be triggered from flat terrain below avalanche paths, or the avalanche may not release until you are out in the middle of the slab or find a thin spot on it. The easiest way to avoid the problem is to stay off and out from under slopes steeper than about 30°. Be vigilant, listen, and watch for collapsing, a sure sign of instability.
-The Tony Grove Snotel, at 8400 feet in elevation, reports 2 inches of new snow overnight. It's 31° F, with 33 inches of total snow.
-Winds on Logan Peak are blowing from the west-southwest at 21 to 30 mph with overnight gusts up to 33 mph, and it's 26° F this morning.
-It's 28° F at Card Canyon, with 1 inch of new snow and 29 inches of total snow.
-On Paris Peak at 9500 feet, it is 24° F with west winds blowing 10 to 15 mph.
Snow is likely today, with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation possible up high. Expect high temperatures at 8500' around 32° F, with 5 to 10 mph winds blowing from the west. Tonight will be cloudy, and temperatures will drop to around 24° F. Tomorrow will be partly sunny with high temperatures climbing to around 39° F. Light snowfall is expected on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with an inch or so possible. Heavier snowfall is anticipated on Thursday, with 5 to 9 inches possible, and snow and periods of heavy snow are expected to continue into the weekend...
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
-A recent small natural avalanche was observed yesterday in the bowl north of Competition Hill in Franklin Basin ID.
-On Tuesday, there were some fairly large natural avalanches, including one on the east face of Naomi Pk and a couple on the Cottonwood Sisters in the Mt Naomi Wilderness.
-On Wednesday morning, sledders remotely triggered a small avalanche in the cliffs on the southwest corner of Tony Grove Lake.
-You can read all recent local observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human-triggered avalanches remain possible at upper and mid-elevations. Avalanches of stiff, previously drifted snow could be one to three feet deep, failing on a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Avalanches failing on the widespread persistent weak layer are possible on slopes steeper than 30° even in sheltered terrain. Very weak, sugary, faceted snow exists on almost all northerly-facing slopes at upper and mid-elevations. Low elevation and southerly slopes were mostly bare of snow or had only shallow coverage before this past week's storms.
  • Recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing (whumpfs) are signs of unstable snow. These are "Red Flags," and you should reevaluate your plans if you encounter them in the backcountry.
  • Avalanches today could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below.
  • A ride in even a small avalanche is especially dangerous in the early season due to shallowly buried rocks, stumps, and downed trees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind-drifted snow are possible in all drifted upper-elevation terrain. Today, moderate winds from the west will drift fresh snow into lee slope deposition areas off the major ridges. Drifting will form shallow wind slabs in exposed terrain and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, gullies, and scoops. In some cases, the new wind slabs will overload slopes that may be hanging in the balance, and larger avalanches stepping down to the widespread persistent weak layer are possible.
As usual, people should avoid travel in drifted terrain steeper than 30°
Additional Information
We triggered dozens of whumpfs following the summer trail towards Naomi Peak. Poor snow structure is now widespread in the Logan Zone, with a slab sitting atop very weak, faceted snow. Creating collapses is both fun and unnerving.
A small natural (or possibly remotely triggered) avalanche was observed in the bowl north of Competition Hill in Franklin Basin ID.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Remember that the Tony Grove Road is not maintained for winter driving. Treacherous snow-covered and icy conditions will be encountered.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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