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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, November 28, 2019
A powerful winter storm has caused very dangerous conditions and HIGH danger on upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north, and northeast in the backcountry. Human triggered and natural avalanches are likely on steep drifted slopes with weak preexisting snow. Storm slab avalanches are possible even on slopes that were bare before the storm. Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below!
  • Avoid travel in upper elevation avalanche terrain and avalanche runout zones.
  • Stay off and out from under steep, wind drifted slopes.
  • Shallow, early season conditions cause even small avalanches to be very dangerous, because you could easily be dragged into rocks or stumps/logs.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Join us for our 16th annual Pray for Snow Party, December 4, at The Cache in downtown Logan.
Come join us for an evening filled with good friends, good food, and good music all to support avalanche forecasting, awareness, and education. Music from The Swinging Lights!!!! Lucky Slice will be serving up gourmet slices once again.
Buy your tickets early to save $5! See you there! HERE
Weather and Snow
It's 21°F at the Tony Grove Lake Snotel at 8400' this morning, and I'm reading 16 inches of new snow at 5:00 AM. There is 29 inches of total snow at the site. It's 17°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station and south winds diminished overnight and are now blowing about 15 mph, with a gust early this morning of 48 mph. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry and natural avalanches are likely in upper elevation north facing terrain where there are slopes plagued by very weak, sugary or faceted October snow.
The danger is likely to become more widespread and a strong Pacific Storm will continue to impact the Logan Zone today, with temperatures dropping into the teens this afternoon. Expect 15 mph southwest winds and 1 to 3 additional inches of snow possible today and tonight. The National Weather Service in Salt Lake City has continued a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains of Northern Utah through Saturday morning. South winds will increase again tonight and veer from the west on Friday, with another round of significant snowfall expected, and another 1 to 2 feet of accumulation possible by Saturday morning.
Shallow, early season snow conditions in the Bear River Range (11/26/19)
  • Hitting rocks and stumps is a real danger. Don't end your season before it starts with an injury from hitting one of these obstacles.
  • As always, be prepared for avalanches, with rescue gear and a partner.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches consisting of fresh wind drifted snow are likely today on steep north facing slopes above about 8000' in elevation. Expect the danger to continue to rise and become more widespread today as more heavy snow accumulates and is drifted by southwest winds into avalanche starting zones. Tuesday near Tony Grove Lake, we were easily able to trigger shooting cracks in recent drifts, and cracking in the new snow was even more widespread yesterday.
  • Cracking and collapsing are red flags indicating unstable conditions.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Storm slabs consisting of new snow are possible on steep slopes, especially those with preexisting weak surface snow, like this feathery surface hoar we found near Tony Grove Lake Sunday. Avalanches could fail on a density change or weak layer within the new snow, and they will be possible even on slopes that were bare before the storm. Natural activity is most likely during periods of very heavy snowfall.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most sunny slopes were bare and many others patchy or crusty after the prolonged November dry spell. But on shady slopes facing the north half of the compass, the old October snow has grown sugary and very weak. The danger on many of these slopes will persist for a while even after the storm abates.
The very same slopes that will tempt us to play on them, are the ones that are the most dangerous and need to be avoided.
Additional Information
  • The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7 We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule HERE
  • As part of your early season tune-up, consider taking an avalanche class. We have lots of avalanche education classes listed already, from Know Before You Go to Companion Rescue to our Backcountry 101. Click on the Education menu on our webpage for a full list of classes from the UAC and other providers. Check out the Know Before You Go eLearning program for free, online, avalanche classes.....HERE
General Announcements
The Tony Grove Road is not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter, and it is snowpacked, narrow, and icy in places. You could easily get stuck in today's very deep snow. Hikers, cross country skiers, snow bikers, dogs, sleds, and 4x4s share the road this time of year, so be nice and keep your speed down around others.
It's key to head into the early avalanche season with the proper mindset. In this podcast, we talk with UAC program director Bo Torrey. Bo talks about particular risks unique to the early season, tips and tricks for knocking the rust off your early season rescue skills, and charts out the path forward with avalanche education. HERE
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