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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 5, 2023
Areas with CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remain on upper and mid elevation slopes in the backcountry. People could trigger large and dangerous avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer buried 2 to 4 feet deep. Except for areas threatened from above, the danger is much lower at low elevations, below about 7500' where rain saturated the shallow snow and colder temperatures have since frozen it solid. Although stability is improving and obvious signs of instability may be absent, elevated avalanche conditions exist on all slopes above the Christmas Storm rain/snow-line
  • Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making remain essential for safe backcountry travel.
  • We've been able to find great shallow powder and safe conditions in the meadows, on slopes at all elevations less steep than 30°, and at lower elevations.
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Weather and Snow
We've been able to find fantastic, fast and fun powder conditions at low elevations and in safe lower angled terrain (less steep than 30°) in the backcountry. The snow at lower elevations was saturated by rain during the New Years storm, and much cooler temperatures since then formed solid refrozen crusts. The hard, stable snow is now capped by several inches of nice powder, and offers a safe backcountry option and smooth and fast conditions for travel in lower angled terrain.
Mountain temperatures rose into the mid twenties overnight. It's now 26° F and there is a bit under 6 feet of total snow (69 inches) at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel site. It's pretty breezy, with a southwest wind blowing along the ridges.
It'll be cloudy with snow likely this afternoon and 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible. High temperatures at 8500' will be around 30°F, and winds will blow 25 to 35 mph out of the west-southwest on the ridges. Expect snow tonight, with low temperatures around 22° F, and 15 mph wind from the south-southwest. with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation expected.
Recent Avalanches
Riders found a recent large avalanche on Sunday in Richard's Hollow off Red Pine Ridge. The avalanche failed on a buried persistent weak layer and was 2 to 6 feet deep and 450 feet wide, and it ran around 700 vrt'. See Report HERE.
Be sure to check out all observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heavy snow and drifting from the New Years Storm created slabs of unstable snow on slopes with a sugary persistent weak layer buried 2 to 4 feet deep.
In many places, people are likely to trigger large and dangerous avalanches failing on a deeply buried sugary persistent weak layer. Such an avalanche could be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. The persistent weak layer from November is now buried 2-4 feet deep, and any avalanche that fails on it will likely be hundreds of feet wide.
In upper elevation terrain in the Bear River Range areas with a deep snowpack stability has apparently improved. Poor snow structure still exists in many places, but the buried persistent weak layer from November is buried so deeply that it is unlikely a person could cause a collapse. The problem is that a person could trigger a dangerous hard slab avalanche from an area on the slope where the slab is shallower.
And, it appears that there are areas in the Logan Zone where the overall depth of the snowpack is shallower and the snow structure obviously worse. Recent natural and remotely triggered avalanches show this to be the case.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
East and northeast winds were fairly strong at upper elevations Sunday and Monday. This is a somewhat unusual wind direction for sustained winds to blow from and in exposed terrain snow was drifted onto slopes with shallower snow that are on the prevailing windward side of the ridges. Tuesday, southwest and west winds drifted the nice New Years powder. Southwest winds may find some snow to drift today and fresh snow tonight will be easily drifted and deposited onto lee slopes.
  • Cracking is a obvious sign of unstable snow.
  • Of course, people should avoid and stay out from under all slopes with significant accumulations of drifted new snow.
  • Watch for and avoid drifts in unusual or unexpected places and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, gully walls, sub ridges, saddles, and sinks.
General Announcements
  • Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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