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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, January 27, 2023
Expect rising avalanche danger in the backcountry today with periods of very heavy snowfall and drifting from west winds. There is CONSIDERABLE danger on upper and mid elevation slopes where people are likely to trigger soft wind slab and loose avalanches of storm snow. Elevated conditions also exist at lower elevations where avalanches are possible and the danger is MODERATE.
The danger could rise to HIGH at upper elevations in the Northern Bear River Range, where almost two feet of snow may accumulate during the day today and more tonight, and people should avoid avalanche terrain. Long running natural avalanches are possible during periods of particularly heavy snowfall and drifting.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 20° F, several inches of new snow with 8/10ths of an inch of SWE from overnight, and a bit more than 7 feet of total snow. The CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700' is showing winds blowing from the west-southwest around 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph.
Today will be very stormy with periods of heavy snowfall and sustained winds from the west blowing 25 to 30 mph and gusting into the 50s. High temperatures at 8500' are expected to be about 21° F and 15 to 21 inches of accumulation is expected at upper elevations in the Northern Bear River Range...
Snow is likely tonight, with 7 to 11 inches of additional accumulation possible at upper elevations. Expect temperatures around 19° F, 17 to 22 mph west-southwest winds, with higher gusts.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy, with 3 to 7 inches of additional accumulation possible in the morning. High temperatures around 20° F and 17 to 22 mph winds blowing from the west-southwest.
Snowfall will continue through the weekend, and it looks like the sun will be out on Monday...
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Zone. Find a list of all observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The National Weather Service is forecasting heavy snowfall and rapid accumulations in the Northern Bear River Range (north of the state line), with almost two feet possibly falling during the day today.
  • Human triggered avalanches of storm snow are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Both are even more likely during periods of particularly heavy snowfall and drifting.
  • There are areas where weak surface snow was buried and preserved by light powder earlier in the week, and today's new snow will likely create potential for soft slab avalanches, especially in areas where the fresh snow is drifted onto slopes steeper than about 30°.
  • Loose avalanches entraining storm snow are likely on very steep slopes at all elevations, and on sustained slopes these can pick up speed and volume pretty quickly. Stay out from under your partners and other parties and avoid very steep terrain where you could be swept into trees, gullies or other terrain traps.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People are likely trigger soft slabs of wind drifted storm snow up to a couple feet thick in drifted terrain, and harder wind slabs from this week will be hidden by today's powder. Sustained winds from the west overnight enlarged cornices and built fresh wind slabs. Some of these probably formed on weak surface snow that was preserved by a couple inches of powder on Tuesday night and could remain pretty sensitive.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like under cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls..
  • Even a small wind slab avalanche can have large consequences if you get swept into trees or other terrain traps.
Additional Information
From what I could see in the field Wednesday, significant loading from Friday's forecasted winter storm will likely cause dangerous avalanche conditions. At least in some areas, Wednesday's super light powder buried and preserved a layer of weak surface snow. (12-25-23 photos from east facing, 8000', in Squirrel Hollow, Emigration Summit ID)
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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