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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, January 23, 2024
The January snow is deep and hard, and the avalanche danger is MODERATE at upper elevations in the Central Bear River Range. The danger is elevated, and people could trigger dangerous slab avalanches up to four feet deep and a couple hundred feet wide, failing on a buried persistent weak layer, especially in shallow rocky terrain. A CONSIDERABLE danger persists, and human-triggered avalanches are likely in outlying areas where the January snow is shallower, like in the Wellsville Range, above Bear Lake, the Logan Peak Area, and on many mid and lower-elevation slopes.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
It's a tricky time to travel in the backcountry as the snow gradually stabilizes and avalanche danger slowly decreases. Obvious signs of instability are fewer, but serious human-triggered avalanche potential persists. Although less frequently than last week, we are still experiencing and receiving reports of audible collapsing or whumpfs caused by poor snowpack structure in mid and low-elevation terrain. Human-triggered avalanches remain likely and could be large and destructive. With excellent coverage across the zone, it is easy to find safe terrain by staying on slopes less than 30 degrees and off and out from under steeper terrain. With recent warm temperatures, low-elevation snow is damp and sticky, but up higher, the snow is dry, supportable, and fast.
This morning, the wind is blowing 15-20 mph from the south-southeast at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. At 9500' on Paris Peak, the wind sensor is rimed or iced up, and it’s 20° F.
It's 26° F and there's 55" of total snow at the new Card Canyon site (8750'). The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 27° F and 79 inches of total snow containing 130% of average SWE (Snow Water Equivalent).
Today, expect high temperatures at 8500' around 31° F, with mostly cloudy skies and a few flurries but little accumulation. Winds will blow lightly from the south and southeast. We'll see unsettled weather for the rest of the week, with gradually cooling temperatures. Snow is likely Wednesday night and Thursday, with 3 to 6 inches of accumulation possible up high. Sunshine is expected to return this weekend.
Recent Avalanches
We received reports of more large naturals that occurred last week in Providence Canyon and several in Cherry Creek Canyon (Mt Naomi Wilderness), including a massive one that ran far and snapped some good-sized trees.
A large natural avalanche that most likely occurred on Thursday, 1-18-24 was observed on Saturday in Three Terraces in upper Providence Canyon.
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today, human-triggered slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be large and life-threatening. During the last storm, heavy snowfall and drifting by winds from the west overloaded slopes plagued by widespread buried layers of weak, sugary snow or facets and feathery surface hoar that developed during the prolonged December dry spell.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse, from below.
  • Collapsing or whumpfs and shooting cracks indicate unstable snow.
  • Avalanches are possible even when there are no obvious signs of instability.
  • With unseasonably warm temperatures and rain, the low-elevation snowpack is saturated. Trigging a wet avalanche in terrain with poor snow structure, like the steep banks next to the Logan River, is possible.
Additional Information
Yesterday, we examined the snow at upper elevations in the Central Bear River Range and found very deep snow.
It's a different story in terrain with shallower snow and a thinner slab layer. On Saturday, we found much more unstable conditions on a mid-elevation east-facing slope above Bear Lake.
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
General Announcements
-Come practice companion rescue with your backcountry partners at the Franklin Basin TH beacon training park.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE.
-We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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