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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 17, 2019
HIGH: Heavy snowfall and strong wind will cause rising avalanche danger in the backcountry today. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist already this morning on drifted upper elevation slopes, and the danger will continue to rise and become more widespread as snow rapidly accumulates and is drifted into avalanche starting zones. Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
  • Avoid travel in backcountry avalanche terrain.
  • Stay off and out from under steep slopes and obvious or historic avalanche paths.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.
* TIMING...THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE MLK HOLIDAY WEEKEND. * AFFECTED AREA...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, TO INCLUDE THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, THE WASATCH RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS, AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU.
* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE DANGER WILL REACH HIGH ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS WITH BOTH NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES LIKELY.
* REASON/IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. AVOID BEING ON OR BENEATH STEEP SLOPES.
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSULT WWW.UTAHAVALANCHECENTER.ORG OR CALL 1-888-999-4019 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.
Weather and Snow
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Logan Zone. Rapid accumulations of heavy snow, warmer temperatures and rain at lower elevations, and drifting from strong south and westerly winds will overload slopes with buried persistent weak layers. The avalanche danger will rise significantly as we head into the weekend.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 6 inches of new snow from yesterday with .8" SWE. It's a warm 29º F and there's 50" of total snow containing 85% of average SWE. I'm reading 23º F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and southwest winds are currently averaging around 35 mph. with gusts around 60 mph.
The winter storm system bearing down on Utah will arrive tonight and impact the area through Friday. High pressure aloft will settle over the area this weekend, followed by a new storm system to begin the week. Expect snow in the mountains today with 6 to 10 inches of accumulation possible. A high temperature of 34º F at 8500' and 20 to 30 mph west-southwest winds are expected. Tonight, 8 to 12 inches of accumulation is expected, low temperatures around 12º F and 8 to 18 mph west---north west wind is expected.
Recent Avalanches
A large avalanche occurred Saturday morning (1/12/19) on the east side of Logan Peak in the Fairgrounds Bowl. It was probably remote triggered by riders in the area. See report HERE
Thanks to Ryan Thompson for the photography
That brings the number of unintentionally human triggered avalanches in the Logan Zone that we know of up to 8 in 2019. (all since 1/4/19) The list of recent avalanches in the Logan Zone list is HERE
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The shallow snow on the ground in many areas is loose, sugary, and faceted. A new snow or wind slab avalanche today might step down into old snow and be large and dangerous. Avalanches on buried persistent weak layers could be directly triggered on very steep slopes with shallow snow and poor snow structure, but you might trigger one remotely, from a distance, or below. The buried sugary snow on many slopes will cause them to be unstable with a heavy load and a new slab from today's storm. The sugary snow will remain weak and probably stay unstable for a while.
Here is some December snow, (now well developed facets) I found buried on the west side of Beaver Mountain. The weak sugary snow is stable on most slopes for now, but could easily become unstable again with loading from tomorrow's rather warm and moist looking storm.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow is causing dangerous avalanche conditions on upper elevation slopes already this morning, and the danger will increase and become more widespread today. Dangerous triggered avalanches are likely, and natural avalanches will probably occur on many slopes tonight. As drifts are building on buried persistent weak layers, dangerous avalanche conditions are likely to persist through the weekend.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Rain on snow and warm temperatures are creating dangerous wet avalanche conditions on slopes with saturated snow at low and mid elevations.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast by Friday morning.
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. If you cross the ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations. HERE You can call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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