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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, May 1, 2020
Several nights without a refreeze and very warm temperatures during the day have significantly increased the danger for wet avalanches. Both loose wet and wet slab avalanches are a concern. The danger will rise throughout the day but without a refreeze, conditions are not necessarily stable in the morning. Avoid steep slopes that are either unsupportable or that have become wet and sloppy. Backcountry travelers this weekend will need to make conservative decisions and have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills.
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Special Announcements
I've stopped issuing regularly scheduled forecast for the season. I will continue to update the snowpack summary through the end of the month as conditions warrant.
Weather and Snow
Use these real-time weather links to plan your day before you head up to the mountains.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack: Mountain temperatures yesterday reached the high 50's and there was not a solid freeze last night. Expect punchy snow conditions that will quickly become wet and sloppy today. Expect a rising danger for wet slide activity as the day progresses.
Corn Snow: Corn is a springtime delicacy that develops after the snowpack goes through several rounds of melting and re-freezing. It can be fickle and overnight re-freezes are key. Corn develops first on southerly aspects in wind-sheltered, mid to lower elevation terrain where the snow gets really cooked. Low angle northerly facing slopes can also make the transition early due to the high angle of the sun. The bigger, steeper, north-facing terrain generally doesn't make the transition to corn snow until sometime in May, or about the time the entire snowpack goes isothermal. Isothermal refers to a snowpack that is wet throughout its depth with all layers being the same temperature. The snowpack eventually becomes one homogenous mass under these conditions.
Getting on and off the snow early is key. Work with the sun by skiing or riding slopes with a more easterly component first, and finishing up in westerly facing slopes by early afternoon. If the snow is becoming wet and sloppy and you are punching through above your boot tops, or are leaving deep ruts in the snow, you are too late.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spring Time Avalanche Concerns
Wet Snow avalanches are the most common concern this time of year as a strong sun and warm temperatures melt the snow, making it wet and sloppy. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and point-release sluffs. Wet snow avalanches can take the form of loose snow or in some cases, much more dangerous and harder to predict slabs. Nights where the snowpack doesn't re-freeze contribute significantly to increased instability.
New and Wind Drifted Snow can cause the avalanche danger to rise just like in the winter. Poorly bonded new snow can cause problems on all aspects when there is more than about 6" of new snow. Loose snow sluffs and soft slab avalanches are possible. This type of instability typically settles out in a day or two. If however, moderate to strong winds are involved, just a few inches of snow can translate to deeper, unstable drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Unstable wind drifts can linger for days or even up to a week.
Persistent Weak Layers can occasionally linger well into spring and deep and dangerous avalanches remain possible. Weak, faceted snow tends to hang around on northerly aspects and shallower snowpack areas around cliffs and rock outcroppings. Paying attention to likely trigger points such as thin slope margins or steep convexities to minimize your risk for this low probability but high consequence hazard.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
Here is a thank you message from all of the staff. See you next year!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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