Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, April 9, 2020
The lack of an overnight refreeze will contribute to an increase in danger for wet avalanches and the danger will rise to MODERATE as temps warm today. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.There also remains an isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain where the snowpack is shallow and weak are the most suspect.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Weather: It did not freeze last night and conditions are very warm this morning with Camp Jackson and Buckboard Flat both reporting temps in the upper 30's. ESE winds overnight averaged 15-20 mph with gusts to 30. They've swung around to the SW this morning where they'll continue to blow in the 15-20 mph range. Clouds will increase this morning as a low-pressure system churns through the 4 Corners region. We'll see a chance for isolated showers with periods of sunshine. High temps will be in the mid 40's. Fri and Sat look sunny and warm with the next system dropping out of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Precipitation will favor the northern mountains while the big story for us will be crashing temperatures.
Snowpack: The lack of a freeze last night will not be conducive to corn snow conditions today. Not only will the snow be punchy and unsupportable, but it will also quickly become sloppy and wet with any sunshine. Some soft snow can still be found on shady, upper elevation, northerly aspects but it's getting harder to find. In some of these areas, a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow exists deeper in the snowpack. In isolated cases, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. Areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain where the snowpack is shallower and weaker are the most suspect.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.