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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 18, 2024
The Abajo/Blue Mountains received 2' of heavy, dense snow accompanied by strong winds between Wednesday and Saturday. Human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes that face primarily W-N-E. In shallower snowpack areas, avalanches may fail on a weak layer of sugary snow near the ground. Avoidance of steep, wind drifted slopes is the safest strategy.
As the day heats up, the danger will rise for loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. ​​​​​​Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
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Weather and Snow
Weather
The closed low pressure system that has been parked over Arizona since Wednesday is finally moving east as ridge of high pressure moves into the Great Basin. Residual moisture may allow for some clouds and convective showers this afternoon but we should see mostly sunny skies this morning. We'll see light winds out of the SW, and high temps in the mid 30's. Tomorrow looks similar followed by dry weather and increasingly warm temperatures through the week. The next chance for snow looks to be around Sunday. Enjoy the spring weather!
General Conditions
Up to 2' of snow has fallen in the mountains since Thursday, containing 3.0" of snow water equivalent (SWE). This is quite a dump and it's going to take a little time to settle out. In addition, strong easterly winds on Thursday and Friday created deep, unstable slabs of wind drifted snow. In our travels on Saturday, we found deep, and difficult to manage heavy dense snow. Several parties reported collapsing, a red flag sign of instability, and Chris Benson sent in this great, detailed observation where he also noted a weak, underlying snow structure. This load will be a good test for it all, but we need to let the dust settle so to speak before we bite off any large terrain. Human triggered avalanches 2' deep or more remain possible to likely, with an outside chance of an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow near the ground. Avoiding avalanche terrain is still recommended, especially steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects. As the day heats up, the threat for loose wet avalanches will increase on sun exposed slopes, and you'll want to steer clear of them as they become wet and sloppy.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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