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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 25, 2023
Very strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry.
Human triggered avalanches involving recent and wind drifted snow are likely. Backcountry travelers should avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially those that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
As the day heats up we may see some loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as rollerballs and pinwheels, and move off of, and out from under steep terrain when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Summary and General Conditions
20" of new snow since Wednesday is being reported at Buckboard Flat with 2' or more likely up high. The recent snow was accompanied by strong SW winds with gusts in the La Sals hitting 74 mph. Over in the San Juan range of Southern Colorado, winds in excess of 100 mph were recorded. Heavy snowfall accompanied by strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are likely. The greatest danger exists on steep slopes facing NW-N-E-SE but all slopes steeper than 30 degrees are suspect. In some areas, avalanches triggered in the new snow may step down to a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Give the snowpack some time to adjust to the new load before venturing on to steep terrain.
In my travels last weekend I found a weak layer of sugary, faceted snow on top of a crust on a westerly aspect. An Extended Column Test (ECT) produced the above results with a score of 24. I'm uncertain how widespread this problem is, but either way, there is enough new and wind drifted snow to create dangerous avalanche conditions.
Additional Information
If you are getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to hear what you're seeing. Please submit observations here. For the most recent snowpack observations click here. You can also send an email to eric@utahavalanchecenter.org or give me a call with anything noteworthy, especially avalanches! 801-647-8896
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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