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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, February 23, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes atg mid and upper elevations that face the north half of the compass. New and wind drifted snow is piling up on a variety of old and weak snow surfaces and a variety of avalanche problems exist. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. The danger is generally MODERATE on steep slopes facing the south side of the compass.
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Weather and Snow
6"-8" of new snow have fallen in North Creek with only a few inches on the south side of the range. SW winds increased yesterday afternoon/evening blowing in the 25-35 mph range with gusts into the low 40's. The next low pressure system is currently moving into our area and snowfall should start up again this morning with 4"-8" possible today. SW ridge top winds will continue to blow in the 15-25 mph range with gusts into the 30's, and high temps will be in the mid teens. The system tracks eastward tonight and we'll sunny skies tomorrow through the weekend.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and wind drifted snow has begun to pile up on a variety of old snow surfaces and faceted, weak layer combinations. The weakest snow can be found on sheltered, northerly aspects where the degree of near surface faceting was greatest. Branching out from there, a variety of crust/facet combinations can be found. The uneven and variable type of weakness makes things tricky, and as snow piles up it should be assumed that human triggered avalanches failing on a buried weak layer are likely.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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