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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 19, 2022
An isolated, or MODERATE danger exists for small avalanches involving recent and wind drifted snow primarily on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations. Look for unstable, wind drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as ridge crests, sub ridges, and gully walls. Dry, loose snow avalanches will be possible on steep, northerly facing slopes where 8" or more of fresh, low density snow is sitting on top of weak, sugary, old snow. Otherwise, the avalanche danger is generally LOW
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Dry sunny conditions and steadily warming temperatures are in store for the weekend. A much anticipated change in the weather pattern begins on Monday as a deepening trough begins to drop down over the region. Several bands of precipitation are expected to move through the state through midweek with Wednesday currently looking like the wettest for southern Utah. Do your rain dance, praise Ullr, or burn some skis and let's hope this winter turns back around before spring!
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack
The mountains north of Jackson Ridge picked up 8"-10" of new, low density snow on Wednesday greatly improving conditions up North Creek. NW winds on Wednesday night did a number on things along the highest ridges and we found alternating scoured surfaces and stiff, fresh wind drifts. Nice, soft powder can be found out of the wind zone, sun exposed slopes have taken on heat and will be crusted over.
The recent snow has fallen on a variety of tired and worn surfaces including bare ground on southerly aspects. On shady slopes, the new snow is sitting on top of old, weak and sugary, faceted snow. In very steep terrain, the new snow can sluff off taking the top several inches of old snow with it. In other areas, a more cohesive soft slab has started to develop within the new snow, and the bond with the old faceted surface is poor. All of this indicates a return to a persistent weak layer problem in the near future.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow will be found on the leeward sides of terrain features such as ridge crests, sub ridges, and gully walls. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dry, loose snow avalanches are possible on steep slopes that received more than about 6" of new snow. This new, low density snow has landed on top of pre-existing sugary, facets. These types of avalanches should be mostly small and inconsequential, but they can entrain a fair amount of snow so beware of terrain traps such as gullies where snow can pile up. As the new snow consolidates into a slab on top of these weak and sugary facets, we'll have to start looking toward a persistent weak layer problem, especially as we move into next week with more snow in the forecast.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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