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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 29, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow. Look for deposits of wind drifted snow on all aspects at upper elevations. On wind drifted slopes that face N-NE-E there is also an isolated possibility for avalanches to step down 2'-3' deep into buried, persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Areas with steep, rocky, and more radical terrain are the most suspect for this type of avalanche. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear, NW winds are light, and mountain temperatures are around zero degrees. It's going ot be cold, clear and beautiful today with continued light NW winds and high temps in the mid teens. Sunday should see mostly sunny skies, with clouds beginning to develop by the afternoon ahead of the next storm system to affect the region. We could see 2"-4" by Monday.
Dustin Randall from ROAM Industry was up around North Creek Pass yesterday. He reported finding about 3"-5" of fresh snow with an overall base depth of 2.5' - 3' on sheltered northerly aspects. Exposed slopes, especially those with a southerly component are still pretty thin.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
It's going to a beautiful day and it's starting to look more like winter! Webcam image courtesy of Kevin Dressel.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds have been all over the place this week, so you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow on all aspects along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability. Look for smooth, rounded deposits, or "pillows" of wind drifted snow and avoid steep slopes where they are present.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On upper elevation, northerly aspects, snow has been sitting around on the ground since October. This has formed a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that makes an unstable base for new snow on top. In some areas it may be possible to trigger an avalanche 2'-3" deep down to these weak, sugary snow. Areas of steep, radical, and wind loaded terrain that faces the north half of the compass are where you are most likely to encounter this problem.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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