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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 27, 2020
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing NW-N-SE where stiff wind drifts or shallow soft slabs are overlying layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. or that feel hollow underneath. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low snow cover is the biggest hazard out there right now with rocks and logs lurking just below the surface, and even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Look for developing clouds today and a chance for a few showers this afternoon as a weak storm system passes through. Light to moderate NW winds will shift to the SW later today. High temps will be in the mid 20's. After that, all eyes are on an approaching storm system that should affect our area tomorrow through Tuesday. Unfortunately, this does not look like the storm that will put us in the game with the bulk of the energy looking to favor the southeastern San Juans. A split and a potential dry slot are complicating things for our area and models are currently showing 2"-6" out of this system. A transitory ridge will build on Wednesday followed by another northern shortwave on Thu-Fri.
Snowpack Discussion
Coverage is exceedingly thin and many sun-exposed slopes are dry. On shady aspects, depths range from 6"-18". The existing snow structure is very poor. In exposed areas, stiff slabs overly this weak, sugary snow, and we experienced frequent cracking and collapsing of the snowpack. These are clear red flag signs of instability. Places you could trigger an avalanche include steep drifted, gully walls, or shady slopes with continuous coverage, where more than about a foot of snow exists.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Recent Avalanches
Dustin Randall from ROAM Industry sent in this photo of an avalanche he remotely triggered on a steep, northerly facing slope near 10,000' earlier this week. This is exactly the type of setup we are concerned with right now. In spite of the low snow conditions, the existing, underlying snow is very weak, and anywhere that a slab exists on top, is primed and ready for an avalanche.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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