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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, December 13, 2018
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper elevation terrain that face NW-N-E. In these areas, old snow from October has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that is providing an unstable base for the last snow load. There may also be some fresh shallow wind drifts from last nights few inches of snow in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. In most other areas, the avalanche danger is LOW. Low snow conditions are in effect and backcountry travelers need to exercise caution in avoiding buried obstacles such as rocks and deadfall.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
I'll be giving a free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness presentation Tonight, Dec 13, at 6:00 pm at the Grand County Library. Hope to see you there!
Also, check out the new free online avalanche course series developed by the Utah Avalanche Center. This is a great way to refresh your skills or prepare you for a Backcountry 101 or Level 1 class.
Weather and Snow
The north end of the range appears to have picked up a little snow with Buckboard Flat reporting 4" while the south end remains high and dry. WNW winds have been blowing heartily over the past 24 hours and are now averaging 15-20 mph. 10,000'' temps are frigid in the single digits. Today will be sunny and bone chilling with a continued blustery NW wind and high temps creeping up into the high teens. High pressure returns for the weekend with models diverging on the next system that is expected to impact the region Monday-Tuesday. Long term forecasts currently show a ridge building over the desert southwest by late next week.
I took a trip up to North Creek Pass last Friday, and was happy to see the snow. Last weekend's storm cycle brought 12"-16" to the high country. Things are still thin for recreation off of the road. The new snow fell on bare ground on all but upper elevation, northerly aspects where about 18" of snow from October remained.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, those slopes that have the most snow, are also the ones that are the most suspect for avalanche problems. Snow that has sat around since October has deteriorated into a weak base of loose, sugary, faceted snow. You can find this weak snow on mid and upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-W. The photo below illustrates the most recent snow, separated from the old by a melt freeze crust. Persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow exist above, and below the crust. This is an unstable base, and human triggered avalanches, breaking down into these weak layers are possible on steep slopes wherever old snow has been sitting around since October.
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