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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 7, 2024
Heavy snowfall and strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions today!
Conditions are changing and the avalanche danger is on the rise in the Abajo Range. As new and wind drifted snow piles up on a very weak pre-existing snowpack, human triggered avalanches will become increasingly more likely. Backcountry travelers need to have good route finding skills. Stay off of slopes steeper than 30 degrees and avoid avalanche run out zones.
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Weather and Snow
It looks like the Abajo Range is finally going to see some much needed snow today. A low pressure system moving through the Four Corners region will bring snow to the mountains today and tonight with up to a foot of new snow. SW winds will blow in the 20-30 mph range before backing off later today. Snowfall should linger through tonight.
The existing snowpack is very weak consisting of loose, sugary, faceted snow. This is a house of cards and it won't take much of a new load for avalanches to start running on this weak snowpack. Strong winds and heavy snowfall will add that load. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes today, especially those with a northerly aspect.
Mathew Cozart was out and about yesterday and sent in this observation. He paints a very clear picture of how weak the underlying snowpack is.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Additional Information
The snowpit below was dug on a northeast aspect just below North Creek Pass on December 31, it shows a very weak, underlying snowpack of loose, sugary, faceted snow with the storm snow of December 23, on top. For now, all layers are soft. This weekend's storm will deposit a slab on top of this weak set up, and this is exactly what we need for avalanches to happen.
The entire snowpack, including the top layer of the most recent storm snow is soft, and is lacking a slab. We call this stable but weak.
This photo illustrates large, non-cohesive, sugary facets from the base of the snowpack.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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