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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 2, 2022
Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remain on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all aspects at mid and upper elevations on steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Most low elevation terrain has generally LOW danger.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Overnight NW winds continued to blow in the 15-25 mph range along ridge tops. They should decrease today and shift back around to the SW by this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure is building over the region and pushing the storm track north. We'll see sunny skies today through Monday with gradually warming temperatures. Clouds develop Monday night as a shortwave disturbance brings a chance for snow to points north. Down here in the south, we'll should stay dry through the week with the next chance for snow looking like next weekend.
Snowpack
The mountains picked up 6" of new snow on Friday and totals for the week are up to between 18" and 21" with locally higher amounts at upper elevations. In my travels on Friday, I found blowing and drifting snow at mid and upper elevations and a weak snowpack. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack and this is where the trouble is. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E are likely. On slopes facing W and SE you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow creating an unstable situation, and human triggered avalacnhes up to 2' deep are likely on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.
Extended column test illustrates the weak layer where a slab avalanche is likely to fail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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