Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, January 2, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing slopes. In these areas, recent and wind drifted snow has piled on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow and human-triggered avalanches are likely. At mid-elevations, there is MODERATE avalanche danger. This persistent weak layer problem will be with us for the foreseeable future and steep, northerly facing slopes should be avoided. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences. Most south-facing slopes and low elevation terrain have a LOW danger due to lack of snow cover.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Utah Avalanche Center podcast's second episode of season 4 is live - Managing Risk with Avalanches, Managing Risk with a Pandemic - A Conversation with state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn.
Stream here or tune in wherever you get your favorite podcasts
There are several new blogs that have recently been published:
Read a few short anecdotes in a blog from UAC staff about how avalanches can surprise us.
UAC forecasters Paige Pagnucco and Greg Gagne discussing danger ratings and persistent weak layers.
Weather and Snow
Weather
Another beautiful day is on tap with sunny skies, light westerly winds, and high temps in the mid 20's. Unfortunately, a long string of beautiful days lies ahead as the Tuesday system now looks unlikely to drop down this far and nothing else is currently looming on the horizon.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
The existing snow structure is very poor. Recent and wind drifted snow overly a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow creating a persistent weak layer problem. In our travels Friday, we observed widespread cracking and collapsing of the snowpack. These are clear red flag signs of instability. Human triggered avalanches remain likely on steep, northerly facing slopes above about 10,000'. Overall coverage remains quite thin and there really isn't enough snow for much off-trail recreation.
This video of an extended column test illustrates the persistent weak layer problem. The slab on top slides off of the layer of sugary, faceted snow underneath.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.