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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 15, 2019
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS! The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE today as new snow and wind drifted snow begin to dangerously overload a fragile snowpack. Human triggered avalanches failing 2'-3' deep on a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow are likely on steep slopes facing W-N-E, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. At mid elevations the danger is MODERATE and deep, human triggered avalanches are still quite possible. By tomorrow, the danger will become more widespread with new snow creating instability on all aspects. Backcountry travelers need to possess excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. Dangerous avalanche conditions will extend through the weekend.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register.
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Check out the new free online avalanche course series developed by the Utah Avalanche Center. This is a great way to refresh your skills or prepare you for a Backcountry 101 or Level 1 class.
Weather and Snow
Clouds have begun streaming into the area ahead of the first in a series of storm systems that look like they are going to bring substantial snowfall. SSE winds have been on the increase overnight and are currently blowing in the 20-25 mph range along ridge tops. Temps are in the mid 20's. Snow should begin to fall mid morning with 4"-6" possible today. Daytime temps will be in the high 20's with continued moderate to strong SW winds. Snow will continue tonight and tomorrow with up to a foot or more possible. Then we'll get a brief break before the next wave arrives on Thursday. Bring it!
Today look for a refreshing of the snow surface as new snow begins to accumulate. By tomorrow, the new snow will begin to seriously effect the snowpack, creating dangerous avalanche conditions for the next several days. A weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow exists at the base of the snowpack. This layer exists on northerly aspects and is providing an extremely unstable base for the coming snow load. Wind drifted snow will add additional stress to this buried weak layer, and backcountry skiers and riders should avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, particularly those that face the north half of the compass over the coming days.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Recent Avalanches
The Abajo Mountains experienced a significant round of both human triggered and natural avalanche activity last week. Expect another round this week as new snow accumulates.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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