Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Monday - March 19, 2018 - 6:49am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is HIGH in the upper elevation steep slopes that face northwest, north and east. Human triggered and natural avalanches are almost certain on these slopes today. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended which means staying off of and out from underneath steep slopes.

Today and Tuesday are likely days for an avalanche accident. Nice weather and fresh snow will entice people into the backcountry where the avalanche conditions remain dangerous.
avalanche warning

THE STORM HAS PASSED BUT THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH NICE WEATHER IN STORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THESE WILL BE LIKELY DAYS FOR PEOPLE TO VENTURE INTO AVALANCHE TERRAIN. TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY.
current conditions

Another 8 inches of snow fell in the last 24 hours. This brings totals on the Skyline up to 2 feet containing about 2.5" of water. West northwest wind on Sunday was moderate to strong in speed and was getting down into the canyon basins stirring things up. You will definitely find areas of wind drifted snow today. Overnight mountain temperatures were in the mid teens.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Weak early season snow near the ground is very likely to collapse and cause avalanches today. The only thing the steep slopes need is a trigger like a person on a snowmobile or skis. This is a very dangerous situation. If you trigger an avalanche, it is going to be very large and will break to the ground taking out the entire winter snowpack.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

As always with fresh snow in the spring, anticipate the sun to heat it up on the more southerly facing slopes. Sometimes it will just get wet and not do much. Sometimes it gets to the point where it becomes unstable and starts to produce natural avalanches. If we see some natural activity today, it won't be huge avalanches but it's something to keep in mind and avoid the steeper sunny slopes if things get too wet.
weather

We'll see mostly clear skies today with mountains temperatures in the mid 20s and moderate northwest wind. Tuesday looks like another nice day with warmer temperatures. Another potentially significant storm is shaping up for Thursday into Friday. It appears that there are more storms lined up.
general announcements

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