Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - March 3, 2018 - 6:11am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes that face northwest, and especially north and east. Wind blown snow has increased the danger in the upper elevations on these slopes. If you avoid the slopes mentioned, the avalanche danger is much lower and you can safely travel around.
current conditions

Warm temperatures and sun on Friday made the snow damp on all aspects in the lower elevations and all but the more northerly aspects at the higher elevations. Southeast and southwest wind created drifts and many wind crusts scattered around the higher terrain. Dense cold powder can still be found on sheltered north upper elevation terrain. The wind is still a bit gusty along the ridges. Mountain temperatures were in the mid 20s overnight.

For more details on the current snowpack CLICK HERE FOR A BACKCOUNTRY OBSERVATION.
recent activity

The southerly wind on Friday drifted enough snow to cause some natural avalanches. I noted a number of natural avalanches in the Little Horseshoe on Friday afternoon. Most of these involved just the fresh drifts however 3 of them did step down and break deeper into old weak snow as they descended the slope.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Triggering an avalanche that breaks into weak snow buried deeper in the snowpack remains the biggest concern. The wind blown snow is enhancing the chance for triggering something. The new snow Sunday morning will also increase the likelihood of triggering something. The most likely spots to trigger an avalanche are on steep slopes above 9500' that face northwest through east.
weather

We'll see increasing clouds today with mild temperatures and moderate to strong ridge top southwest wind. High temperatures will be around freezing in the mountains. A cold front will move through early Sunday morning producing some snow. I'm thinking 5 to 10 inches is a reasonable amount to expect. We should see snow through mid day on Sunday with the storm moving out in the afternoon. Wind will shift northwest on Sunday and will be moderate in speed. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens and drop into the single digits late.
general announcements

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We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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