Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Sunday - March 19, 2017 - 7:07am
bottom line

The avalanche danger starts out LOW this morning and may increase to MODERATE during the day with daytime heating. Natural wet avalanches are possible later today and cornices may also break off naturally. Avoid large steep slopes later in the day as the snow becomes really wet.
current conditions

Overnight low temperatures in the mountains were again pretty warm with most stations at about 40 degrees. Folks who were out on Saturday remarked at how quickly we've lost snow.
recent activity

A few glide avalanches were reported to have released in Seeley. This is when the entire snowpack slides to the ground. These types of avalanches are very unpredictable as far as exactly when they will release. However, a string of warm weather like we've seen is typical conditions to produce these avalanches. Often, glide avalanches occur in the same locations year after year.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 10 hours
description

The key for avoiding wet avalanche activity is to get into the mountains early and exit before things are completely wet and sloppy. Once the snowpack is saturated and punchy, it's wise to avoid being on or below large steep slopes.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 10 hours
description

Continue to avoid the large overhanging cornices. It is difficult to predict when they will crack off but they often do during warm weather like we're seeing right now.
weather

We'll see warm temperatures again today with some high clouds. We'll see a change in our weather pattern this week with disturbances moving through starting about Tuesday. A fairly significant storm is shaping up for Wednesday into Thursday which could produce a good amount of snow. Temperatures will cool down but won't get real cold with this storm. Another storm looks like it's shaping up for next weekend.
general announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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