Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Sunday - January 22, 2017 - 6:58am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE in the mid and upper elevation terrain on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Human triggered avalanches are possible especially in areas where the wind has been drifting snow. Anticipate the avalanche danger to rise during the next windy storm scheduled for later today and through Monday.
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current conditions

The mountains received another 3 to 5 inches of snow in the last 24 hours. The northwest wind on Saturday was a little stronger than I anticipated and was definitely drifting snow along the ridges and getting down into the mid portions of the canyons as well. Along some mid elevation exposed ridges, we found the fresh drifts to be only somewhat sensitive. We were able to get some cracking when we poked at them but nothing sheared and released. I suspect along higher and steeper terrain, things would've been more serious.

The wind has let up for the time being and is from the west. Mountain temperatures are in the mid teens.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Freshly formed wind drifted snow will be your main concern today. These drifts will not be as sensitive as they were late Saturday but may still crack out and surprise you. Continue to hit many small steep test slopes (with no consequences) to see if you can initiate any cracking of the newly formed drifts. This will give you a good idea of how sensitive things are. Today's southwest wind may start to form more drifts as the wind increases later today.

Drop me a line and let me know if you are experiencing any cracking or if you find things to be stable.
weather

We'll have mostly cloudy skies today with snow likely this afternoon. We probably won't see much accumulation until this evening. Southwest wind will start to increase as the day goes on. Temperatures will be in the low 20s. Southwest wind will get strong tonight and into Monday when the majority of the snow will fall. Most weather models are advertising about an inch of water which would translate into around a foot of snow for our area through Monday. The European model, however, is coming in with only around .5" of water which would be around 6 inches. I'm anticipating that we'll see totals somewhere in between.
general announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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