Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - February 6, 2016 - 6:50am
bottom line

A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still exists in northwest through east facing terrain steeper than 35 degrees which has avalanched earlier in the season. There is no way to know if a slope has previously avalanched just by looking at it. You will have had to follow it's progression carefully all year. If you keep your slope angles less than 35 degrees, the avalanche danger is much lower.
current conditions

We have mostly clear skies this morning with ridgetop temperatures in the low 20s and light west northwest wind. You will find excellent riding conditions in most locations. Sunny slopes will have a sun crust from yesterday and you'll note some wind affected snow scattered about as well.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

There is still a chance that you could trigger an avalanche that breaks into weak snow near the ground today. Here are the ingredients needed to find trouble:

  • Slope steepness over 35 degrees
  • Slope facing northwest, north or east, most likely on northeast to east
  • Slope that has previously avalanched earlier this year

Obvious signs of instability will be absent today. You won't see any other recent avalanches. Most likely, you won't experience any cracking of the new snow. It's possible you may feel the snow collapse below you. If so, this is a significant red flag.

Below is a photo of a slope which shows which type of slope I wouldn't touch today. This is east facing in upper Seeley. The photo was taken in December after it avalanched to the ground. There is a very small amount of new snow on top of the bed surface which became weak again and is now buried. This is only one example but there are numerous other similar slopes out there.
weather

Someone just flipped the switch on our weather pattern. It's going to feel like sapring for the next week with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. Today, ridgetop highs will be near freezing and west northwest wind will be light to moderate in speed. Sunday looks similar but slightly warmer with a bump in wind speed. Ridgetop highs are forecast to reach into the upper 40s by mid week. This warm weather may make the snowpack a little cranky at first but it may be just what we need to finally settle out the deeper instabilities.
general announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am.  We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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