Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - January 2, 2016 - 7:22am
bottom line

The majority of the terrain in the mountains has a LOW to MODERATE avalanche danger. A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists along the higher ridges on steep slopes that face west, northwest and north where the recent wind has transported snow and formed large fresh drifts. There may be a few slopes in the higher terrain which did not avalanche during last week's natural avalanche cycle which may still be triggered today by a person. Use caution in the higher terrain today.
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current conditions

East wind on Friday blew harder than anticipated and moved lots of snow in the higher terrain. The wind has slowed dramatically at this time. Temperatures are warmer this morning with most stations in the upper teens.
recent activity

The wind transported snow created some avalanche activity on Friday. It was on west, northwest and north facing slopes that had gotten wind loaded. Most of the activity I saw was minimal but I wouldn't be surprised to find a bigger avalanche from that wind loading event.

Below: small natural avalanche from east wind loading the slope
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The most dangerous situation out there today is if you were to find an area which did not avalanche during last week's natural avalanche cycle AND has been recently loaded up with drifted snow from Friday's wind. This could result in a deep and dangerous avalanche. This type of slope that may avalanche today will be a bit elusive but don't let your guard down.
weather

We'll see mostly cloudy skies today with temperatures getting up to around 20˚F or maybe slightly warmer. The wind will continue to shift to the south and then southwest and will be light to moderate in speed. Sunday looks similar with warmer temperatures. A number of storms are shaping up for next week which may give us some more snow. As of now it looks like there will be impulses on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. I'll give more details on these in Sunday's advisory.
general announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am.  We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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