Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - December 26, 2015 - 6:11am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains HIGH on slopes around 35 degrees in steepness in the upper elevations. It is most pronounced on northwest through east facing slopes. Human triggered avalanches are very likely in this terrain today. The danger is much less on slopes 30 degrees or lower. Be sure that there are no steep slopes above you as well.
avalanche warning

* TIMING...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL UTAH, TO INCLUDE THE MANTI-SKYLINE.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...A HIGH DANGER EXISTS FOR THESE AREAS. LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE AVALANCHES BREAKING TO THE GROUND ARE POSSIBLE. AVOID BEING ON OR BENEATH STEEP MOUNTAIN SLOPES AS AVALANCHES MAY BE TRIGGERED FROM BELOW.
current conditions

Wow!! The Manti Skyline picked up at least another 16 inches of very low density snow on Christmas Day. The majority of this fell in a very short period of time about mid day which created a very touchy and unstable situation. The storm is over and it's starting to clear. It's cold out though with readings around zero degrees in the mountains. The wind is fairly light from the northwest with moderate speed gusts along the ridges.
recent activity

The burst in snowfall on Christmas produced another round of natural avalanches. We do not know the extent of this avalanche activity yet. Much of it was just within the new 16" of snow but some may have stepped down and broken into the weak snow near the ground. The Skyline went through a significant avalanche cycle earlier in the week with numerous large avalanches breaking near the ground.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The biggest concern today is triggering an avalanche that breaks into old weak sugary snow near the ground. If that happens the avalanche will be at least three feet deep and may be un-survivable. This weak snow near the ground will eventually become stable but it is still likely to produce human triggered avalanches this weekend.
weather

It looks like we have a couple of cold but beautiful days ahead. We'll see mostly clear skies this weekend. Temperatures are only going to reach around 10 degrees today. Sunday will be warmer. Northwest wind will blow in the moderate speed category along the highest ridges. No big storms are in the forecast for next week, just a couple of very small events that might produce flurries mid week.
general announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am.  We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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