Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Sunday - December 13, 2015 - 7:07am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today along the higher elevation more east facing terrain where wind may be drifting snow and creating small drifts. Small human triggered avalanches are possible today. THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE ANTICIPATED STORM.
avalanche watch

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...STARTING MONDAY MORNING, DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS AND THE WASATCH PLATEAU.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SNOW AND WIND.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE EXPECTED ON A VARIETY OF ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS.
current conditions

The northwest wind picked up on Saturday into the moderate speed category drifting some snow but not an alarming amount. It is still out of the northwest in most areas with gusts into the 20mph range. Along SR31 at the top of Fairview Canyon the wind is from the southwest with gusts into the 20s. Temperatures are in the mid teens and we have mostly clear skies.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The wind drifting the newest snow into sensitive drifts will be your biggest concern today. This is probably not going to be a huge issue today but continue to pay attention if you see any drifting snow. Watch the more east facing ridges and terrain features as these are the most likely spots to find a fresh drift that might crack out and release. We may see the wind increase a bit during the day today.

wind slab from Trent Meisenheimer on Vimeo.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

All of the early season snow on the west, north and east facing slopes has become very weak. Any snow that builds up on top of this weak layer could cause slab avalanches. This problem is going to make the avalanche danger increase during the next storm Monday and Tuesday when we are expecting more snow.
weather

We'll have increasing clouds and high temperatures up near 30 today. Winds will be blowing in the moderate speed category and may increase slightly. They will be from the northwest and should start to shift more southwest late in the day. A storm will move through starting tonight and lingering into Tuesday. Snowfall should start Monday morning and last through the day. We are expecting the snow to contain .5" to 1" of water. This should give us 6 to 12 inches of snow or perhaps a bit more if we're lucky.
general announcements

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am.  We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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