Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Craig Gordon for Wednesday - December 24, 2014 - 5:45am
bottom line

At upper elevations, at and above treeline, the avalanche danger is HIGH. Human triggered avalanches are likely especially on steep, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass. Any slide triggered today has the potential to break deep and wide, resulting in a dangerous and possibly unsurvivable avalanche.

A CONSIDERABLE danger exists on steep, wind drifted mid elevation terrain and human triggered avalanches are probable.

Looking for LOW avalanche danger? Head to low elevation south facing slopes that have no preexisting weak snow issues or big open meadows with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.
special announcement

Huge thanks to Sam T Evans and Look Trailers for generously donating a loaner two place sled trailer for the 2014-15 season.... y'all rock!

We just released an exciting, new avy safety video designed specifically for snowmobilers - Knowledge is Powder. https://vimeo.com/113677686

NEW THIS YEAR: You can now receive advisories by email for each region in the state. Go here for details.
current conditions

Skies remained clear overnight, temperatures crashed into the low teens, and northwest winds are currently blowing 10-25 mph along the high peaks. Average snow depths are close to three feet and the big weekend storm essentially doubled the Skyline snowpack. Needless to say, the range is white and coverage has vastly improved.

recent activity

Given the snowpack structure and epic amounts of water weight and winds... I'm sure the Skyline experienced an impressive avalanche cycle. Darce and Steve are headed out today to grab images of the carnage.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

This was a great storm for the Skyline, but we've gotta remember all the heavy snow, lots of water weight, and hurricane force winds all slammed down on a weak, sugary snowpack. We've got a deceptively dangerous setup because the snow will feel strong and bomber underneath our skis, board, or sled.

So here's the deal... we need to think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on and right now the weak pre-exisitng snow needs some time to adjust. It doesn't mean you can't ride.... it does mean you're gonna have to avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass. Any avalanche triggered today has the potential to break into weak layers near the ground, producing a large and dangerous slide. Add sunny skies to the mix and now we've got the perfect setup for a close call, or worse yet, avalanche accident.

Remember- whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in front of your skis, board, or sled are huge clues to unstable snow. And don't forget the biggest clue... recent avalanches! Especially if they're occurring on the same kind of slope you wanna ride on.
weather

A warm southwest flow increases today ahead of a pacific cold front. Clouds increase throughout the day, high temperatures reach into the mid 30's, and southwest winds ramp up, gusting into the 50's by late tonight. The front crosses the area in the early morning hours Thursday with heavy snow. Snow continues through the day and overnight before tapering off Friday. A foot of snow is a good bet.
general announcements

We're still interested in snow and avalanche information. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions.   You can call me directly at 801-231-2170, email craig@utahavalanchecenter.org, or email by clicking HERE

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

I will update this advisory by 7:00 AM Thursday Dec. 25, 2014.