Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Max Forgensi

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The BOTTOMLINE for today will be an avalanche danger of MODERATE on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees on West-NW-North-NE-E aspects at and above tree line. Back country travelers should be aware of poorly supportable slopes with trigger points present: convex rollovers, rocky terrain or sparse trees. The snow may have had a chance to stabilize since last week's storm, but there are places that the snow pack has enough energy to initiate and propagate and avalanche when a rider's weight is applied.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Clear skies, warm daytime temperature and cold nighttime temperatures have been affecting snow conditions all over the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. All sunny aspects have either some type of sun crust or no snow at all. Shady aspects do hold some decent turning conditions that are short lived yet a bonus for folks understanding that just getting out in the mountains is rewarding enough. Be prepared for variable snow conditions: wind skins, bare ground, sheltered powder, crusts and surface hoar...you will more than likely travel through them all.

Camp Jackson's SNOTEL site is reporting 24" of snow on the ground, while the sensors near the Geyser Pass trail head reports 15" this morning. 2WD vehicles will get you up to the mountains today. LUNA has been doing a great job grooming, unfortunately a mechanical failure will limit the grooming for the Christmas Weekend.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Our tour to Mann's Peak yesterday (Tuesday) in the northern massif verified that the storm system favored the central and southern massif of the La Sal mountains. Past avalanche activity was observed into Deep Creek off of Mt. Tomasaki and a below tree line avalanche along Haystack Ridge occurred.

You can view our snow stability tests HERE.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Our persistent weak layer is the depth hoar interface with the upper snow. Our observations showed 60% of the snow was faceted with 40% of new snow on top WITH surface hoar forming. We can glean almost 95% of our observations without digging into the snow, do not hang your decision to ski a slope on one snow stability analysis. People get in trouble hanging their hats on one stability test in a range of variable snow and ground cover conditions.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Weather forecast for 10,000' in Gold Basin, La Sal Mountains Today: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 11am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 30. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 7. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday: Snow showers. High near 19. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -15. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 26. East wind around 15 mph becoming north.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Mark your calendars for a free Avalanche Awareness talk at the Grand County Library on January 6th, 2011 at 6:00 pm.

Sign up for our annual AIARE Level Iavalanche class being held on February 3rd through the 5th. Call 435-636-3335 to for more information.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.