Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

CONSIDERABLE avalanche dangers continue in the Mountains of SEUtah with high winds moving new snow around and continued reactivity on buried Surface Hoar. The danger is worst on E-NE-NW-W facing slopes above 10,000 feet where new snow drifting and the weakest old snow are likely to be found.

Good conditions are still being reported from shady aspects in the Mountains of SE Utah. More snow is forecast for the area so likely conditions are going to stay pretty good. WInds are ripping today with ridgetop speeds averaging in the high 20's and gusting to 40 mph. Shade and lower elevations will be your friend today.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

The storm progged for this area last night is moving more slowly than forecast and the NWS is still sticking to their guns and calling for snowfall today and tonight. We've had 3-5 inches of snow across the regions since Friday. Good conditions are out there but sunny side slopes have sun crusts and above treeline slopes have wind crusts. The N. woods is getting quite tracked up so heads up in there. We've got about 72 inches of snow at our Gold Basin Study Plot and stand at 133% of normal snowpack in the La Sals. Relative Humidity values have just shot up in the La Sals in the last 2 hours so it look like some more snow is about to be dropped up there. The Abajos have already picked up a couple inches.

Expect 4wd or Chains to be necessary to get to the La Sal trailheads this morning

Matt Hebbard, our hero, has once again single handedly groomed the entire La Sal Nordic system. In this case only to have it covered by yet another storm. Powder Skating and Classic cross-country await. Good work Matt.

RECENT ACTIVITY

Some dry loose activity noted on NE face of Tukno. Definitely big enough to take you for a ride.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

WInd slabs in the new snow continue to be our primary avalanche danger today. E-NE-NW-W facing slopes steeper than 35 degrees near and above treeline will have wind loaded areas of sensitive new snow. Winds have been uncharacteristically light this entire season. Not so today. The south winds have whipped up a fury, so expect wind slab development up high and in open areas below treeline. Human triggered avalanches remain likely.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

We still have buried surface hoar layers that could be re-activated with the weight of the new snow. The first is now buried 2.5-3 feet down in the snow pack. The last is buried about 5 inches down (depending on the depth of wind drifting) and was formed during last week's high pressure. We are not used to dealing with this phenomena too often down here in SE Utah, and the instability regarding this persistent weak layers seems to be very long lasting. I did extensive testing on this layer earlier this weak and found it to still be very reactive in snowpit tests. Disturbingly so. Take a look for this layer in the snowpack, and see if it has formed where you want to ski. Some expertise will be required here. If you are unable to perform simple layer identification in the snowpack, then stay on low angled terrain or the North Woods.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Today:

Snow showers. High near 30. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight:

Snow. Low around 19. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast.

Tuesday:

Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. West southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night:

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Wednesday:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.

Wednesday Night:

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Thursday:

Partly sunny, with a high near 25.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours.

We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.