Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

New snow over SE Utah is freshening up the skiing and riding conditions but we can expect an overall rise in the Avalanche Danger to CONSIDERABLE as well. Heavy snow in the forecast means we may rise above that danger. Human triggered avalanches are likely out there today so keep the slope angles down.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Yesterday we measured over 4" of new snow at our Gold Basin Study Plot at 10,000ft in the La Sals. It loks like another 2-4 inches has fallen overnight but this total needs to be confirmed as the La Sal SNOTEL site is a notoriously low performer in south winds. The Abajos started out slow in this storm but have picked up 6" of new snow overnight. SE winds have picked up since midnight so we can expect some wind damage above treeline and in open areas affected by south winds. With the new snow, we can expect improving conditions in areas sheltered from the SE winds but also an increased avalanche danger on lee or cross-loaded slopes . Read on for more on this.

Roads into the mountains this morning will be unplowed so 4WD or Chains are recommended.

Grooming Report: Buried

RECENT ACTIVITY

Nothing from this storm yet.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

We have raised the Avalanche Danger Rating for today to CONSIDERABLE. We are approaching critical values for snow and water weight based on the

density

of the snow we've been receiving. At 11-15 % this new snow is a rimed crystal type that is conducive to

slab

formation. The winds that have come up since midnight are really adding to the potential danger. Slopes that are being loaded up by these winds are likely to produce avalanches under the weight of a skier. East through NE through NWfacing slopes at and above treeline should be considered dangerous. Localized areas below treeline affected by SE winds and cross-loaded gullies should also be avoided. Heads up folks, the changes is here and the game is back on. Travel Conservatively.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Persistent weak layers in the form of depth hoar and buried faceted grains can be found at 1/3 height in the snowpack and lower. Reports of collapsing and "whoomphing" on these layers are still coming in to the center indicating that the potential for these deep, persistent weak layers to produce an avalanche still exists. While unlikely to be triggered, an avalanche of this type could release into old snow producing a large slide with severe consequences. Thinner snowpack areas over convexities near treeline are the most likely areas for this kind of event.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Today:

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Tonight:

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Monday:

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Monday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming east.

Tuesday:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 21. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday Night:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

As the season gets underway, we would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours!

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.