Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - February 10, 2018 - 6:40am
bottom line

With the overall lack of snow cover, the avalanche danger is generally LOW. A remote possibility exists for triggering a shallow avalanche in extreme, upper elevation, north facing terrain. Limited snowfall later today should not increase the danger.




special announcement

Due to lack of snow cover, we will be discontinuing regular avalanche advisories after this weekend. We will continue to monitor conditions and will resume if snowfall dictates.

current conditions

I took a trip up North Creek yesterday, and was stunned to see how much the sun and warm temperatures of the past week had diminished the snow pack. Virtually all southerly aspects are void of snow, and coverage on shady terrain ranges from less than a foot at lower elevations to 18" max on favored, upper elevation northerly aspects. The trailhead at Dalton Springs is nearly melted out, and dry patches are appearing on the North Creek Road.

Clouds have moved in over the area, and WSW winds are on the increase averaging 20 mph with gusts in the low 30's up on Abajo Peak. It's 36 degrees at Buckboard Flat.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Pretty much says it all.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next hours
description

You have to have snow for avalanches and there isn't much. North facing terrain holds up to 18" of snow at upper elevations, and near the ground the snow is very loose and weak. If you wandered into some very steep, extreme, north facing terrain, you may be able to trigger a shallow slab on top of loose, sugary snow, but these are areas are far and few between, and are easily avoided. The lack of coverage alone is enough to keep you out of these areas.
weather

A storm system dropping down from the north will affect our area later this afternoon hopefully bringing us a few inches of snow.


general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.